AND THE WINNER IS…ASM NOORALLAH TARUN, a family physician who ran for the federal Conservatives in the 2025 election, beat out two other contenders (instead of three) to win the PC candidate nomination for SSW last night.

The PCs have been pretty low-key about the nomination, perhaps not wanting a repeat of the drama in the Liberals’ corner. Media were not invited to observe the meeting on the Danforth.

Who did show up: The Liberals rolled out a billboard truck to remind everyone about Premier DOUG FORD’s $28.9-million jet saga. According to them, the PCs tried to shut it down and threatened to call the cops (“Must have hit a sore spot!” said one Libe…

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NDP Leader MARIT STILES served up a cake Wednesday to mark more than 1,000 days since the RCMP launched its investigation into the Greenbelt land swap. Naturally, the puns wrote themselves.

“When it comes to corruption, DOUG FORD takes the cake,” she quipped. “No developer is going to benefit from this carve-up,” she added as she sliced the dessert, complete with “1,000”-shaped candles and frosting that read “Doug: Happy 1,000th Day Under Criminal Investigation.”

The cheeky stunt was meant to keep the now-reversed Greenbelt grab alive — something Ford has insisted isn’t even on the public’s radar anymore (“It doesn’t even show up in our polling.”).

Big picture: Stiles has been contending with an extended summer recess in which Ford has been taking up oxygen by playing Captain Canada and national unifier, perhaps with an eye to rebounding in the post-jet polls. No Question Period or daily media scrums makes it more challenging for Oppo critics to get their message out there, …

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MURSHED NIZAM, an accountant and active member of the riding’s rich Bengali community, has been red-lit and won’t be on the ballot, Queen’s Park Observer has learned.

That leaves three contenders on the board for tomorrow night’s contest: ASM TARUN, a family physician who ran for the federal Tories in the 2025 election…AYESHA SARDAR, a community organizer…and GAZI SIJAN, an HR professional.

The PCs were forced to hold an open nomination to pick their candidate after heavyweight GARY CRAWFORD, former councillor and city budget chief, bowed out of the running.

It wasn’t immediately clear why Nizam was disqualified. Party officials kept it pretty high-level — they typically don’t reveal specifics — only noting that all would-be contestants go through a vetting process and must follow the rules throughout the competition.

Reached by phone, Nizam would only say he felt “bad” about the decision. He had been canvassing the neighbourhood and signing up members for weeks.

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Alas, as the old saying goes: political parties operate much like a private country club in that they get final say over who gets to carry their banner in public elections. Wannabe candidates are vetted for potential political liabilities and must stick to party process for everything from membership sign-ups to the nitty-gritty paperwork.

But if the PCs were hoping for a smooth race — perhaps to show up the Liberals after their own nomination drama featuring failed candidate NATE ERSKINE-SMITH — this latest development could throw a wrench into that plan.

Scarborough Southwest is a long-shot riding for the PCs, who haven’t held it since it was first drawn up — and especially since the incumbent NDP and challenger Grits have already been pounding the pavement while the ruling Tories scrambled for their own flag-bearer. FATIMA SHABAN is gunning to keep the seat orange, while AHSANUL HAFIZ is looking to turn it red.

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Premier DOUG FORD was in Wild Rose Country to do the obligatory Calgary Stampede thing: flipping flapjacks, swapping a Ford Nation belt buckle with Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH (complete with a lasso moment), and pumping up pipelines.

But, and it’s a biggie: Experts, critics, and even the feds are poking holes in the new oil pitch.

Dubbed the Northern Shield — a name Smith awkwardly forgot at one point — the pipeline would stretch 3,300 kilometres moving between 500,000 to 800,000 barrels of oil per day from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario, cutting through Regina and Winnipeg. Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE is on side, but Manitoba’s WAB KINEW needs more convincing, saying he wouldn’t support any project without first consulting First Nations.

Questions abound: There’s no specifics on a price tag or a plan for private-sector participation. Infrastructure Ontario is handling the feasibility study, which is due out by the end of the year and would…

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Meanwhile, Oppo war rooms have had plenty of summer ammo thanks to a steady drumbeat of rough polling and bad headlines for the government. But DOUG FORD’s PCs are proving once again that a bad news cycle doesn’t hurt their bottom line as they crush Q2 fundraising.

Plus: the Energy Minister has a new director of policy. Let’s dig in.

CERJANEC OUT — A major shakeup in Liberal land as Cerjanec — the MPP who poached Ajax from the incumbent PCs in the last election — took himself out of the running for leader.

Officially: Cerjanec isn’t saying much about the why, only that he made the “difficult” decision to “suspend” his campaign after “considerable reflection and conversations” with family, supporters and colleagues.

Unofficially: There’s a few theories floating around out there (stay tuned!) but the most prominent is the money factor.

As first reported in this newsletter, Cerjanec wasn’t even on the fundraising board while his rivals were raking in six-digit figures. And when he did disclose his contributions so far, it paled in comparison to the other contenders. As of last night, his campaign had posted $89,855 in donations, which still doesn’t come close to his opponents. (For those keeping count: Leadership contestant ERIC LOMBARDI is finally on the board: $120,758.)

Sources close to Team Cerjanec tell me the party’s fundraising timelines and $50,000-debt ceiling proved too big a challenge.

While the campaign had secured pledges from donors, the party requires certain payments by certain dates (including a $150K entry fee), and fundraising during summer isn’t exactly a cakewalk — especially for a third-place party in the midst of their third recent leadership race with a crowded field.

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Speaking to supporters last night, Cerjanec said he made the decision now, four-and-a-half months before a new leader is named, rather than hang in there “without a realistic path forward.”

Cue the kingmaker: The now-defunct campaign may still be warm, but the other wannabe leaders, NAVDEEP BAINS, LEE FAIRCLOUGH, DYLAN MARANDO and Lombardi, will soon be scrambling to secure a possible endorsement from Cerjanec, who says it’s too early to make any decisions.

Cerjanec himself was backed by Liberal MPP and Finance critic STEPHANIE BOWMAN, who at one point was considering a leadership bid herself — some organizers are hopping back on the Bowman bandwagon and encouraging her to run. The deadline to enter the race is July 31.

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FUNDRAISING WATCH — I’ve tallied up the political parties fundraising hauls for the second quarter of this year, and — surprise, surprise! — the ruling PCs continue to blow their opponents out of the water.

While that’s nothing new, what’s notable this time around is that the PCs have been framing their barrage of fundraising emails as a “byelection preparedness fund” — suggesting the Scarborough Southwest and York-Simcoe races are imminent (Recall: the latter must be called by August 5, and the PC candidate nomination goes down Thursday). Byelections also raise the bar on donation thresholds: Supporters can cough up an extra $3,425 per local candidate, in addition to the $5,000 annual limit.

Also: DOUG FORD has had a rough couple months in the polls after the private jet fiasco and getting booed at Ford Fest, to name a few headaches. But that hasn’t hampered his moneymaking prowess.

Regular readers will know the drill by now: Elections Ontario’s disclosures come with a reporting lag and don’t include smaller donations under $200, so these tallies will almost certainly be higher than internal records — something that particularly impacts the NDP, which tends to attract smaller donors, rather than the PCs, who have deep-pocketed supporters.

By the numbers:

• The PCs raked in $2,406,839 during April, May and June of this year, with 1,894 folks giving an average of $1,271

• The NDP recorded $389,703 in Q2, with 2,887 supporters donating an average $135

• Liberals: $102,314 over the last three months, with 941 donors contributing an average $108. Note: this doesn’t include leadership hauls, which I last rounded up here.

• Greens: $121,193 from 983 donors giving an average of $123.

Catch up on Q1 fundraising.

HAPPENING TODAY

DOUG FORD’S MONDAY — 9 a.m. Mountain time/11 a.m. in Ontario: The Premier is trekking to Stampede country and holding a presser with Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH ahead of the Council of the Federation meeting later this month. What’s the over/under on someone lassoing a fresh belt buckle? Catch the livestream.

9 a.m.: Housing Minister ROB FLACK is in London alongside Mayor JOSH MORGAN.

2 p.m.: Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND is in Belleville.

Lieutenant Governor EDITH DUMONT is touring Kenora this week.

CLIPPINGS

— IN OTTAWA: “Ottawa city councillors and local MPPs have signed an open letter calling for more assistance from the provincial government following last week’s record-breaking rainstorm…Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE said he had spoken to Premier DOUG FORD about support for the city and residents impacted by flooding.” More from CTV News.

— HOEKSTRA PARTY: “U.S. Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA’s speech at his Fourth of July party in Ottawa included a political nudge aimed at Canada, with American F-35 fighter jets flying over the crowd and a comment about some provinces’ bans on American booze.” CBC reports.

— MZ-OH NO: “For years, the big debate around Port Dover has been fresh perch or pickerel for your fish and chips at the Erie Beach Hotel, a hot spot since 1946. Now it’s yes or no to the MZO in a battle over development and employment versus preserving farms and the area’s rural character as Premier Doug Ford’s government scrambles to ease a housing shortage and create jobs across Ontario.” The Star has the story.

— NO CAP: “Ontario’s World Cup matches have come and gone with ticket resale platforms running afoul of a new price cap law but seemingly facing no penalties from the province.” CityNews reports.

— CRITICAL MINERALS CASH: “The province has announced up to $4 million in funding for projects that help develop Ontario’s critical mineral supply chain.” Via CTV.

— PROTESTS APLENTY: Protesters are taking their fight to PC MPP offices, including that of KINGA SURMA, who’s on parental leave, where things got intense.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

JENIFFER CUNLIFFE is taking over as press secretary to Premier DOUG FORD. Cunliffe previously handled comms for Trade Minister VIC FEDELI, and will be covering for GRACE LEE, who’s going on maternity leave (congrats!).

JAY TULIPANO has been promoted to director of policy to Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE. Tulipano joins KYLE NIETVELT, who recently took on D-Pol on the Mines side of the file (scooped here).

GRAHAM O’BRIEN has been promoted to senior policy adviser to Social Services Minister MICHAEL PARSA.

Beyond the bubble: RAHUL BEDI — former deputy chief of staff and head of policy to Premier DOUG FORD, now senior GR and partnerships director at Hydro One (scooped by yours truly) — has been named to the board of the Ontario Centre of Innovation. He’s also poised for a part-time appointment to the University of Waterloo’s board of governors.

Wanted: Regional chair job postings are now online — much to the chagrin of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, which has called on the Ford government to reverse its “undemocratic” move to appoint strong chairs to oversee elected officials.

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🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Liberal MARY-MARGARET McMAHON (Beaches-East York)…Tory operative JENNI BYRNE…Global News’s ISAAC CALLAN

🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Chicken chow mein with vegetables.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 3 days until the PCs nominate a candidate for Scarborough Southwest…30 days until the Premier has to call the SSW byelection…41 days until AMO…113 days until the House reconvenes…138 days until the Liberals name a new leader…149 days to call a byelection in York-Simcoe.

Want MPP eyes on your proposal? Share your message with our influential audience in the most-read newsletter at Queen’s Park. Find out about advertising opportunities by emailing DANIEL@QPOBSERVER.CA.

Got a tip? Document to leak? Staffer on the move? Birthday or anniversary coming up? I want to hear from you, on or off record. Reach out to sabrina@qpobserver.ca or reply to this email.

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SMOKE ON THE WATER — After booing the Premier at Ford Fest and crashing his announcements, OPSEU is taking their protests up a notch by trekking to cottage country.

OPSEU prez JP HORNICK posted clips of members in Muskoka, where Ford has a cottage, decked out in their purple (not blue!) shirts with union flags and signs fixed to their kayaks, saying that “while workers across Ontario remain on strike fighting for community services, [Ford] just gave himself a 21-week summer break. So picket line paid a visit.”

It wasn’t immediately clear if the Premier himself was there. He did swing by the Legislature’s big Canada Day bash on Wednesday.

The tactic is already stirring up the usual debate over where the line between protests and personal targeting stands.

Some believe demonstrators go to far by rallying at politicians’ homes, arguing t…

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🇨🇦 PROGRAMMING NOTE: This will be the last newsletter until Friday — I’m taking off for Canada Day and the next day (it’s my birthday!). Here’s hoping the powers-that-be gift me a relatively quiet news day.

Premier DOUG FORD is in Utah playing Captain Canada — something that works for him politically amid sagging poll numbers and boos back home. But first: Here’s who y’all think should carry the torch post-Ford.

Of course, the Premier says he isn’t going anywhere and insists his less-than-stellar polling numbers aren’t enough to knock him and the PCs off their pedestal. Still, that hasn’t stopped the speculation about who could take up the mantle.

More than 400 of you voted in our very unscientific, just-for-fun poll gauging potential successors. And the winners (for lack of a better word) are…

• STEPHEN LECCE handily topped the set with 43 per cent

• MONTE McNAUGHTON was runner up, with 39 per cent

• CAROLINE MULRONEY came next, with 29 per cent

• JOHN TORY: 22 per cent

• “FORD FOREVER”: 21 per…

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FUNDRAISING WATCH — Grit contenders continue to haul in the big bucks as they campaign for the top provincial job. Another contender is on the board since I first reported the numbers earlier this month.

That would be MPP ROB CERJANEC, who, according to real-time donation disclosures from Elections Ontario, has raked in $58,770 so far. And the rest:

• NAVDEEP BAINS: $309,702

• LEE FAIRCLOUGH: $184,594

• DYLAN MARANDO: $122,344

The fifth contestant, ERIC LOMBARDI, hasn’t reported any contributions just yet. That doesn’t necessarily mean he hasn’t raised any cash — there can be lag time between money coming in and disclosures showing up — but optics-wise, it isn’t exactly a strong show of force at this stage of the game.

Money isn’t an exact proxy for support levels either. Leadership races are won through membership sign-ups, organization, …

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Still smarting from the nomination loss in Scarborough Southwest, NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is officially ruling out a bid for Ontario Liberal captain, and sounds done with provincial politics altogether.

The outgoing MP for Beaches-East York held a farewell party at Brunswick Bierworks last night, telling the crowd he’s closing the door on his provincial ambitions — but the one to Toronto City Hall is wide open. Erskine-Smith downplayed the conversation he had with Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW, saying his candidacy only came up “in passing.”

“Having gone through what I went through in Scarborough, it just doesn’t make sense,” he said of the provincial race. It’s not totally surprising — since narrowly losing the SSW nomination (and his subsequent challenge of the results) Erskine-Smith has been laying low, saying his leadership bid is less likely.

Municipally speaking, he’s got a clearer opening: BRAD BRADFORD is gunning for Mayor and putting his Beaches-East York council seat in …

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But first: Y’all had some thoughts about yesterday’s poll on potential Ford successors.

After a flurry of write-ins (including one “Ford forever!”) I’m splitting the poll into two parts to give a few more names their shot. Yes, yes, the Premier insists he’s not going anywhere. And yes, he says he’d still win a “supermajority” after eight-plus years in office, even as some polls suggest the bloom is wearing off.

Still, Queen’s Park loves a succession parlour game. So here’s round two of our anonymous, very unscientific, just-for-fun poll: Who should carry the torch?

Ford himself has kept his not-so-stellar polling numbers in the headlines, getting testy with reporter…

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Premier DOUG FORD got feisty at the podium, ripping into reporters, protesters, pollsters — anyone pointing out his popularity is in the dumps — and insists he’s not going anywhere even as the rumour mill starts churning out potential successors. Highlights:

“All you’ve done is attack me since I’ve been up here,” Ford said defensively when asked about getting booed by OPSEU protesters on his own turf at Ford Fest, drowning out much of his speech and causing him to be whisked away immediately after, rather than shake hands and pose for selfies among the crowd — something the Premier personally loves to do. The union also showed up at yesterday’s announcement in Toronto.

Ford didn’t specifically address the now-infamous edited photo that his office claims was meant to lessen an orange hue, and which also wound up turning purple-clad protesters Tory blue. He did accuse the union of bringing in protesters by the busload and using “very vulgar language…the F-word,…

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First in Observer — Open disclosure season continues! Today I’ve got a peek at the annual Liberal returns, which cover income and expenses for 2025. Here’s who got the biggest slices of the pie:

• Data Sciences, the keeper of the party’s voter-contact software and membership database, Liberalist: $600,198 for research and polling, plus another $236,095 filed under “other programs expense”

• Bellwether Technologies (founded by Mainstreet’s QUITO MAGGI): $156,196 for research and polling

• The Sheraton Centre, the venue for last September’s convention at which BONNIE CROMBIE ultimately resigned following a 57-per-cent leadership review: $538,178

• DAVID INNES, a former candidate and IT lead for the Grits: $98,535 to cover professional fees, plus another $50,398 under “other programs”

• StackAdapt: $112,914 for advertising

• Poliscience, sister company to Grit pollster DON GUY’s Pollara: $40,228 for research and polling

• KATHRYN McGARRY, party president: $20,809 for “meetings …

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Ford Fest has always drawn protesters — but Friday’s community barbecue in Scarborough was a totally different vibe.

There was a heavy OPP and Toronto Police presence (on horseback, ATVs and wielding big guns), OPSEU members in purple turning their backs during Premier DOUG FORD’s speech, and enough boos to drown out the cheers. Things got pretty intense among the PC supporters in the crowd, too.

That’s not nothing. Ford can get jeered at a Raptors parade, even at a FIFA event — but Ford Fest is his turf. The Ford family’s annual free-hot-dog event is a flex in retail politics, and it’s the one room he should be able to control.

This year’s doubled as a momentum driver ahead of a summer byelection in Scarborough Southwest. But as Ford’s popularity spirals in the polls (although, not according to his own pollster), organized labour brings the heat, and Oppo critics keeping the private jet fiasco alive, the optics of getting booed are especially rough — especially f…

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PREMIER’S POLLING WOES AREN’T GOING AWAY

Another day, another bad-news poll for DOUG FORD.

One week after Angus Reid pegged the Premier’s approval at a measly 21 per cent and ranked Ford dead last among the country’s first ministers, another survey suggests things aren’t getting any better for him.

Before we dig into the latest from Liaison Strategies, an update on Ford’s beef with the non-profit pollster that he shrugged off as “fake” and skewed toward critics: Angus Reid has sent the Premier a legal letter, saying they “stand by its work” and “long record of independent, non-partisan public opinion research.”

“We do not intend to litigate this issue in the media, but we do believe the public record should be corrected.”

Today’s numbers probably won’t do much to cool Ford’s sore spot.

Upshot from Liaison: The (permanent-leaderless) Liberals have overtaken the PCs, with 38 per cent of decided and leaning voters saying they would pick …

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Cheat sheet: The Speaker has sided with Oppo critics when it comes to summertime meetings of the committee that vets government appointments, the Premier’s new(ish) chief of staff is hosting his first chiefs-wide huddle, and the PCs confirmed my scoop about a star contender for the York-Simcoe byelection. Meanwhile, BONNIE CROMBIE still isn’t saying much about her expected bid for Mississauga Mayor — but her rivals aren’t holding back. A protester is shaken up after getting bumped by a junior PC minister’s vehicle. And the NDP wants the Integrity Commish to look into an ex-Ford staffer’s too-close-for-comfort move to a mining giant. Let’s get to it.

First in Observer — NO REST FOR THE COMMITTEE — The “friends and donors” committee lives to grill another day.

Speaker DONNA SKELLY has settled the summertime turf war at the Standing Committee on Government Agencies — and it’s a win for Oppo MPPs trying to keep Ford government appointees in the hot seat.

To wit: The PCs tried to block the committee from meeting over the summer. The Speaker took a hard pass. Buckle up: this one’s for the procedural wonks.

I got my hands on Skelly’s ruling, which landed after government MPPs appealed Liberal committee chair MARY-MARGARET McMAHON’s decision allowing SCGA to sit over the break.

How it started: Liberal STEPHANIE SMYTH — who has taken to calling SCGA DOUG FORD’s “friends and donors” committee — had teamed up with NDPer WAYNE GATES on the three-member subcommittee to set the summer schedule. Since the subcommittee only needs two of three members to agree, the PCs were outnumbered.

The counterpunch: PC LAURA SMITH moved to rule the subcommittee’s decision out of order, with the government side arguing this particular committee does not typically meet during legislative recesses. Opposition critics accused the PCs of trying to dodge uncomfortable questions about who is getting appointed to provincial agencies, boards and commissions — and how.

McMahon rejected the PC challenge, pointing to a lack of precedence. PC WILL BOUMA promptly appealed to the Speaker, who has the final word.

Skelly sided with McMahon. It’s pretty simple: Subcommittees always set the calendar, and there’s no history of that ever being overruled by the broader committee.

“As they are created by the House, committees have no power to amend or suspend the application of orders of reference or Standing Orders,” the rulebook for procedure and decorum, Skelly wrote. “I find that the Chair of the Standing Committee on Government Agencies was correct in her ruling that the motion moved by the Member for Thornhill [Smith] was out of order and I confirm that decision.”

That said, Skelly left the door open to a detente, noting the subcommittee can rejig the calendar. “Perhaps there is a schedule that would suit the members of the Committee better, and I encourage them to work together to find a solution that will be satisfactory to everyone,” she wrote.

Smyth is claiming the W. “This is a win for the people of Ontario. More transparency surrounding the people who are being appointed to key government agencies, committees, and boards. Given that the government has continuously extended their breaks, it’s important that committees such as these regularly meet to discuss business and hold the government to account where we can,” she texted.

Now what? SCGA is set to deal with the Speaker’s decision when it meets this morning. Also on the docket: ROB FRANCIS, a member of the Ontario Honours Advisory Council, will be front and centre.

Why it matters: SCGA can’t veto appointments either way, that’s up to the Premier and Cabinet. But it is one of the few places where MPPs can publicly grill would-be appointees about how they got their gigs. Earlier this month, they exposed a pair of appointees who had donated thousands to the PCs and applied for their positions after being encouraged to do so by ministers.

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We called it! — LAHEY’S IN — It’s official: SUSAN LAHEY will fly the PC banner in the hopes of keeping York-Simcoe blue.

The PCs announced the candidate appointment yesterday, confirming my scoop from earlier this week. Lahey is a councillor in East Gwillimbury, a small business owner, and president of the local riding association.

That gives her an edge when it comes to organization and name recognition. She’s also got the blessing of former longtime MPP and Cabinet minister CAROLINE MULRONEY, whose resignation triggered the byelection.

And while Lahey still hasn’t called me back, she’s been getting loads of praise from chatty insiders who say she checks all their boxes.

“People like her and she knows the riding. She’ll be hard to beat. The question is by how much (can she win)?” one Tory organizer said earlier this week.

The PCs have had a rough go in the polls and headlines, and while they’re expected to hold on to the seat, the victory margin will be a solid gauge of just how much political capital the ruling party has left. “Will anyone be paying attention? You know how it is with summer byelections,” they added.

Ford has until December 2 to call the byelection, but it could be held in tandem with Scarborough Southwest, which must be called by August 5. The PCs are holding an open nomination July 9 to pick their contender in that long-shot riding (scooped here).

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CHIEFS ASSEMBLE — TRAVIS KANN is rallying the troops.

Premier DOUG FORD’s chief of staff is hosting a meeting of ministerial chiefs this afternoon — a notable first for Kann since he took up the mantle from PATRICK SACKVILLE, who is now at Sussex Strategy (you read it here first!).

As far as one chief of staff can remember, it’s the first in-person huddle in a year, maybe longer. “It’s exciting,” they said.

After months of major turnover in the PO and across government — which regular readers will know all about — Kann seems to be settling the waters and is getting rave reviews from the folks he’s been steering since March.

“Travis has been very available by phone and text to chiefs and ministers. His presence is felt and seen. Quick to provide a steer,” said one senior staffer.

The Premier’s new command centre has had somewhat of a rough hazing after a bumpy stretch this spring. It includes IVANA YELICH, who has returned as principal secretary (scooped here) — a move that insiders said would bring more discipline to Ford’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach.

HAPPENING TODAY

DOUG FORD’S THURSDAY — The Premier is expected to make an (unconfirmed) cameo at the funeral for fallen OPP officer TARUN BALI in Mississauga.

9:30 a.m.: NDPer KRISTYN WONG-TAM is in the Media Studio to pump up private member’s Bill 135, the Swahili Heritage Month Act.

10 a.m.: The Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act Alliance and the Ontario Autism Coalition are hosting a virtual town hall to hear what parents of students with disabilities need in the classroom.

12 p.m.: Information and Privacy Commissioner PATRICIA KOSSEIM will deliver a keynote to Transparency International Canada’s virtual AGM.

6 p.m.: Liberal leadership contenders NAVDEEP BAINS, ERIC LOMBARDI, LEE FAIRCLOUGH and ROB CERJANEC at a Filipino-Canadian Community Townhall at Soulpepper Theatre. Invite.

FUNDRAISING WATCH — 5:30 p.m.: Back-to-back fundraisers from the PCs, featuring STEPHEN LECCE and MICHELLE COOPER at a $500-event in Toronto and a World Cup watch party with STEPHEN CRAWFORD in Oakville for $500 a pop.

CLIPPINGS

— BONNIE BUZZ: Would-be mayoral contender BONNIE CROMBIE is still keeping tight-lipped on her expected bid in Mississauga (you read it here first!), telling CP24 she’s “considering options” and will have more to say in the “coming weeks.” But with opponents already ripping into her comeback, she might be getting cold feet.

“She quit to do something else, and she’s currently treating the city like a backup plan and a consolation prize,” ALVIN TEDJO told JOHN MOORE on Newstalk 1010.

“Mississauga is looking ahead, and so am I,” said DIPIKA DAMERLA. Read on.

— HOLLAND HIT: “Coming into physical contact with [Associate Forestry Minister] KEVIN HOLLAND’s car came as a bit of a surprise, DAN DUBRAY said Tuesday. Video recorded at the scene shows a vehicle driven by Holland, MPP for Thunder Bay-Atikokan, move forward slowly and hit Dubray’s right leg as the union member was protesting on Hewitson Street.” Full story.

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CASH, COMEBACKS, CONTESTS AND CLAP BACKS

In today’s scoop-filled edition: DOUG FORD is popping off on pollsters, Liberal leadership hopefuls are flexing their fundraising muscle (or not), and the PCs are throwing open their doors in Scarborough Southwest. But first: BONNIE CROMBIE is plotting an imminent comeback in Mississauga.

A POLITICAL HOMECOMING — In what might be the worst-kept secret in provincial politics since last year’s snap election, BONNIE CROMBIE appears poised to return to her old stomping grounds in Mississauga.

The former provincial Grit captain has for months kept coy about her potential bid to jump into the mayoral race, and Crombie’s camp is still staying quiet (at least when it comes to this reporter’s questions).

But chatter in the 905 — including from folks who reportedly heard it from Crombie herself — suggests she could officially launch her bid on or around June 22.

This time, it’s a whole new ball game.

Crombie left the mayor’s desk to take a run at provincial politics, only to wind up without a seat at Queen’s Park and without the Liberal leadership. So while she was a popular mayor, a return to City Hall also risks looking, to some voters, more like a consolation prize than a victory lap.

And it’s hardly a coronation. She’d be entering an already crowded field that includes incumbent CAROLYN PARRISH (with whom there’s no love lost), Councillor ALVIN TEDJO and Councillor and ex-MPP DIPIKA DAMERLA. Slim pickings: Many local campaign operatives have already picked teams and could be harder to recruit.

She may also be facing a familiar foe in Premier DOUG FORD, who has said he’d send “an army” to block her from reclaiming her old City Hall seat, while praising Parrish. Ford’s blessing has been a kiss of death in past civic races (ahem, MARK SAUNDERS), but Crombie is no stranger to the political damage the Ford Nation war room can do.

So don’t call it a comeback — yet.

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OPEN BOOKS — Meanwhile, the money race is on in Liberal leadership land, and so far, it’s a three-person game.

As of yesterday, only three of the five contenders had posted their cash hauls on Elections Ontario’s real-time disclosure dashboard. Here’s how they stack up:

• NAVDEEP BAINS, a frontrunner who has boasted his money-making prowess by already raising the $150K entry fee, and whom the PCs have been quick to saddle with TRUDEAU-era baggage, has brought in $297,677 from 182 donors giving an average of $1,644

• LEE FAIRCLOUGH, the MPP who poached Etobicoke-Lakeshore from the Tories last year, has brought in $126,660 from 77 supporters and an average donation of $1,667

• DYLAN MARANDO, former backroom operative in the PMO and PO, clocked in at $97,864 from 108 folks giving an average $915.

Bains is blowing his opponents out of the water, Fairclough boasts the biggest cheques on average, but Marando has a broader base than Fairclough. It’s early days, so ROB CERJANEC and ERIC LOMBARDI aren’t on the scoreboard yet, but optics-wise, it isn’t exactly a strong look.

Why it matters: It’s not all about the money in a leadership race, but it does provide a solid gauge of early organization, donor reach and campaign momentum. And that goes a long way when you’re gunning to steer a third-place party that’s been trying to claw its way out of the political wilderness since 2018.

Caveat: These are real-time disclosures, which usually come with a two-week reporting lag, so the tallies could shift once Elections Ontario does its audit.

It’s open disclosure season! I’ve been parsing year-end party financial returns — catch up on the biggest payouts for the PCs, NDP and Greens, and stay tuned for the Liberal receipts. Wondering what your coworker or competition got paid? Send me their names: sabrina@qpobserver.ca.

OPEN RACE — After GARY CRAWFORD bowed out of the running, the PCs will hold an open nomination contest to pick their candidate for the soon-to-be-called byelection in SSW.

I suggested as much yesterday, and the party’s nominations committee made the decision to hold a contest later that morning. The race will take place on July 9, with speeches at 4 p.m., voting ‘til 8:30 p.m., and results around 10 p.m.

There are four contestants on the board: ASM TARUN, a family physician who ran for the federal Tories in the 2025 election…MURSHED NIZAM, an accountant…AYESHA SARDAR, a community organizer…GAZI SIJAN, an HR professional.

It’s somewhat unusual for the Ford PCs to hold an open nomination contest for a byelection, but it’s not totally rare — there was a local race to pick the candidate for the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex race back in 2024.

As one insider has noted, running a drama-free nomination would be an opportunity to show the Liberals “how it’s done” after their own messy contest.

Scarborough Southwest is a long-shot for the PCs — they haven’t held the riding in more than two decades, and the incumbent NDP and Grit challengers already have a leg-up on the ground game as their respective candidates FATIMA SHABAN and AHSANUL HAFIZ have been door-knocking for weeks.

Since byelections are called on Wednesdays and held on Thursdays — and assuming the PCs would wait to lock in their candidate before dropping the writ — E-Day could be called July 15 with a vote set for August 13. It must be held by September 3.

One byelection the PCs are expected to hold on to is York-Simcoe, and party insiders are talking up SUSAN LAHEY, the local riding association president (who actually won a party award for it) and part-time councillor in East Gwillimbury. Why she’s got an edge.

HAPPENING TODAY

11 a.m.: Municipal Affairs and Housing Parliamentary Assistant MATT RAE is in St. Catharines alongside Mayor MAT SISCOE and Welland Mayor FRANK CAMPION.

11:15 a.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES and local rep CATHERINE McKENNEY are holding a presser in Ottawa, to talk about extreme heat stress in schools and apartments. The NDP have a private member’s bill on the Order Paper to tackle the issue. Also on hand: Ottawa ACORN Vanier chapter chair BADER ABU-ZAHRA and Ottawa U Student Union advocacy commissioner NORAH BELLO.

CLIPPINGS

— FORD FUMES: “Premier DOUG FORD is lashing out at a non-profit pollster after the organization recorded a steady drop in his support, culminating in his worst level of support since taking office in 2018.”

Ford called the Angus Reid Institute’s poll “fake” and suggested they surveyed “the NDP and Liberal caucus.”

“Our polling, along with other polling show — since you brought it up, I don’t like boasting and bragging — if an election was held today, we’re at 41 per cent, we’d win a massive majority once again.”

The pollster, which pegged his approval at a paltry 21 per cent and dead-last among all the Premiers, clapped back: “While it is not surprising for a premier with a comparatively low approval rating to express unhappiness with the data, we note that Premier Ford has at times been among the most approved-of provincial leaders in the country based on data from this same quarterly survey. We note he did not express a problem with Angus Reid polling then.” More from Global News.

Naturally, Ford weighed in on a slew of other topics at his Thunder Bay presser…

On NDPer SOL MAMAKWA’s call to close the “death trap” that is the Thunder Bay jail, after his nephew died while incarcerated: “We just want to make sure we get some consultation. We built a nice jail, a very nice jail up here. Matter of fact, it looks like the Four Seasons Hotel. I’m not sold on that. When people commit crimes, they shouldn’t be in this fancy, dancy jail, but we’re gonna invest in it. Let’s see what we do with the old jail. Do we renovate it? Because we need more cells.” He then riffed on “weak-kneed” judges and the feds over bail reform.

On the Ring of Fire: Ford told reporters they “got me on a roll…The province has put up $1 billion to build roads and help with the airports. Guess how much the feds have put up? Zip, zero, zilch.”

On the safety of Highways 11 and 17, something local NDP critics say isn’t happening fast enough: “We’ve had a lot of accidents, unfortunately, a lot of deaths on those highways…Safety is a priority,” Ford said, noting MTO and the OPP have pulled 18 trucks off the road and laid 76 charges, while the government has earmarked $600M to expand and repair infrastructure in the North.

On striking OPSEU-repped social service workers, who were also rallying in Thunder Bay: “It’s not the province, I keep stressing this. This is the service providers.” He added “we give…a lot of money” and “strikes never work, everyone gets hurt.”

The actual announcement: $2.4 million to upgrade the Port of Thunder Bay and the Peninsula Harbour Port Authority in Marathon…$958,500 for the Port Arthur Health Centre.

— PLAN B: “Outgoing Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is considering running for Toronto city council, and has discussed the possibility with Mayor OLIVIA CHOW.” Scoop from the Star.

Speaking of the Mayor…

— SHOW US THE MONEY: “Chow is accusing the Toronto Port Authority of hiding initial plans for a $5-billion Billy Bishop airport expansion from the city, even though the authority says it has shared “preliminary” work with provincial and federal officials.” The Star’s also got that one.

— TENTS ON TRIAL: “The Region of Waterloo and the Ontario government will appeal a court decision that ruled in May the region is not allowed to remove people living at the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in downtown Kitchener because it violated resident’s charter rights.” CBC has the story.

— STRETCH GOAL? “New housing in Ontario stuttered slightly last month after a relatively strong start to the year, with the province still far away from its one-time goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.” More from Global News.

— SHOOTERS-FOR-HIRE: “Police say dozens of shootings across the GTA are being carried out in “gun-for-hire” schemes where young people are paid by “bad actors” to shoot at various targets, including synagogues, Jewish schools, and the U.S. Consulate.”

Liberal MPP STEPHANIE SMYTH (St. Paul’s) released a statement calling the revelations “unprecedented and terrifying” and blamed all three levels of government. “The reality is that nothing Mayor CHOW, Premier FORD, or Prime Minister CARNEY have done so far has been enough to stop this escalating campaign of hatred and violence.” More from CTV News.

— CHARGED UP: “Environmental groups are cheering an Ontario government announcement that three battery storage projects will add enough capacity to the electricity system to power 640,000 homes.” The Canadian Press has the story.

— HEALTH atHOME LATEST: “Senior staff in the Minister of Health’s office were notified about a cyber attack at a government home care agency more than a month before the public was told, despite publicly scolding the organization for not moving faster.” Global reports.

— RED LIGHT DISTRICT: “A new digital parking system in Elora has been abruptly taken offline after a bizarre cyber glitch began routing drivers to a pornography website instead of a payment portal.” Via CTV.

— A DIFFERENT KIND OF BUZZ: CBC is the latest to cover the Legislature’s rooftop bees, which I first told you about here. Word on the street is Speaker DONNA SKELLY is taking suggestions on what to name the honey that would eventually be sold in the gift shop. House Honey? Queen’s Bees? Fili-bee-ster? Comb-ittee Business? Puns intended and relished.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

Tourism Minister STAN CHO has poached an MPP liaison and board appointments adviser from Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND: LEILA VAFA, who was previously Holland’s policy and stakeholder relations adviser.

ASYA PRYCE is moving on from Cabinet Office and headed to the Ministry of Natural Resources as a senior comms adviser.

BRIAN HAO is exiting government after policy-and-stakeholder stints in the offices of the Ministers of Infrastructure and Long-Term Care. Hao has signed on to Impact Public Affairs as manager of public affairs.

It’s LinkedIn official: PATRICK SCHERTZER, who I first told you was leaving his post as chief of staff to Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY, has returned to his roots at Legal Aid Ontario as chief risk officer.

LOBBY LIST

Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:

• Abinaya Chandrabalan, Rubicon Strategy: Canada Workday ULC

• Jessica Georgakopoulos, Sussex Strategy Group: Campfire Circle

• Trisha Rinneard, Wellington Advocacy: Toronto Swim Club, United Association Local 787 - HVACR Workers of Ontario

• Matthew Gagne, Vantage Canada LP: Ronsco Inc.

• Tony Valeri, Ridge Strategy Group: Legnano Teknoelectric Company North America Inc.

🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former Premier ERNIE EVES.

🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Pulled pork mac and cheese with coleslaw.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 49 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Scarborough Southwest…132 days until the House reconvenes…157 days until the Liberals name a new leader…168 days to call a byelection in York-Simcoe.

Want MPP eyes on your proposal? Share your message with our influential audience in the most-read newsletter at Queen’s Park. Find out about advertising opportunities by emailing DANIEL@QPOBSERVER.CA.

Got a tip? Document to leak? Staffer on the move? Birthday or anniversary coming up? I want to hear from you, on or off record. Reach out to sabrina@qpobserver.ca or reply to this email.

Cover: Bonnie Crombie attends the federal Liberal convention in Montreal. Via X.

BYELECTION BUZZ

Now that the countdown to a pair of byelections is on, all eyes are on the PCs as they scramble to find a candidate in Scarborough Southwest and start eyeing a flag-bearer strong enough to keep York-Simcoe blue. The big question is who?

Scarborough Southwest must be called by August 5, and while there’s more runway for York-Simcoe (December 2), one theory is that both races could be held in tandem this summer.

And with heavyweight contender GARY CRAWFORD out of the running in SSW, some party operatives tell me there could be an open nomination contest to pick the candidate in the long-shot riding.

“It would be fair and open,” said one PC insider, acknowledging that if nothing else, it would be an opportunity to show the Liberals “how it’s done” after their own messy nomination contest.

Officially: The riding association president isn’t talking. Unofficially: would-be contestants are already hitting the pavement and kn…

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INSIDE THE GREENS’ CASH HAUL

Last week, I told you what was in the year-end books for the PCs and the NDP, and today, it’s all about the Greens, who are fresh off a weekend convention in Hamilton, where there are whispers of a byelection sooner than later.

Don’t forget: These receipts wouldn’t cover expenses and income during the February campaign period. Here’s who got the biggest payouts on the annual returns…

• $370,463 overall for advertising, $52,237 of which went to Meta, which owns Facebook, and $14,520 of which went to EOK Consults

• $201,572 to Keys 360 Marketing, for telemarketing

• JMA Consulting raked in $9,322

• Oraclepoll Research got $9,605 for polling

The Greens ended the year with $780,344 in the bank, after expenses. Before those deductions, they clocked in at more than $2.3 million in income, including nearly $1.5 million in donations and $640K from the taxpayer-funded per-vote subsidy.

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POLL WATCH — Premier DOUG FORD has hit an all-time low.

That’s the upshot from the latest survey from the Angus Reid Institute, which puts his approval rating at 21 per cent — his worst level since first taking office and a brutal ten-point slide since March. Countrywide, he’s at the bottom of the Premiers’ pack.

The obvious drag on his numbers is the jet fiasco, but the not-so-obvious issue runs much deeper: Ford’s moves have chipped away at the man-of-the-people brand he’s created for himself, and coupled with FOI carve-outs and the cellphone records fight, it’s wearing his government’s political capital thin.

It’s been “a quarter marked by both economic pressure and self-inflicted wounds.”

“His government has continued to frame its agenda around protecting Ontario from U.S. tariffs, but that message has competed with a budget that is projecting years of deficits, as well as persistent affordability and health-care challenges. Mos…

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First in Observer — RECEIPTS REVEALED — I’ve been parsing annual party returns at Elections Ontario, and today, we’re digging into the NDP’s books.

Remember that these 2025 returns won’t include campaign spending and expenses for the snap election in February. — you can check those out here.

While the PC returns showed the usual suspects getting the biggest payouts, what’s notable in the NDP’s is how much they coughed up for the September convention at which Leader MARIT STILES got a weak 68 per cent for the post-election leadership review.

The total fundraising income from the Niagara event clocked in at $20,005 (with $13,220 filed under contributions and another $3,205 from the silent auction).

The spend blew that out of the water, including:

• $207,933 to the Niagara Falls Convention Centre

• $302,122 to Project X Productions, for staging

• $105,980 to Stronco Designs for signage

• $93,589 to block out rooms at the Hilton, plus another $4…

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