POLL WATCH — DOUG FORD is having a very bad day. But it’s arguably worse for his political rivals.

That’s according to not-so-stellar polling stats that just keep piling up for the Premier, suggesting his approval is swirling down the toilet.

And he’s not the only one: The NDP and Liberals aren’t exactly capitalizing on the PCs slump.

By the numbers: The Angus Reid Institute’s deep-diving cross-Canada outlook has landed with a thud at Queen’s Park, ranking Ford dead-last among the Premiers in their Weighted Government Performance Index, which factors in the percentage of provincial residents who say the province is doing a good job on an issue and how highly that issue is selected as important. Ontario clocked in at 18, “the worst in the country.”

“Compared to last year, the province’s score has declined by 11 points as Ontarians have become increasingly critical of Ford government’s performance on key provincial concerns.” Ouch.

Top of mind: Just 11 per cent of respondents s…

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FUNDRAISING WATCH — Ontario’s political parties are raking in more cash than ever, thanks to the Ford government’s steady raising of donation limits, which, naturally, is benefitting the ruling class more than their rivals.

First-quarter cash hauls are in, and the PCs are again flexing their fundraising muscle and lapping the other parties, big time. Before we dig into the numbers, let’s set the table.

As of this year, citizens can fork over an eye-popping $5,000 annually to a political party, up from $3,400 last year. Soon after coming to power, Premier DOUG FORD had scrapped Liberal-era reforms (brought on by their own cash-for-access scandal) and promised to phase out the taxpayer-funded per-vote subsidy to off-set lower individual contribution limits. But, spoiler alert, that never happened, and parties that receive a certain threshold of votes continue to get quarterly allowances.

In Q1: The PCs raked in a $1,373,162 quarterly allowance, the Liberals (who came secon…

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The House may be on a constituency week break, but Ontario’s political world was anything but quiet over the holiday weekend. Let’s hop to it.

Premier DOUG FORD was feeling chatty in Texas, telling reporters that a majority government for MARK CARNEY — something the Liberal Prime Minister could clinch during next week’s trio of byelections — would bring certainty to trade talks with the U.S.

Bromance in full swing: “I always believe that you get more things done when you have a majority government,” Mr. Ford told The Globe during an interview at the Austin Chamber of Commerce on Thursday. “Let’s see what happens with those by-elections. There’s a pretty good chance that he’ll win them.” If nothing else, it’s pouring cold water on evergreen speculation that Ford is gunning for a national run.

Closer to home, Ford is feeling confident the PCs could poach Scarborough Southwest in a byelection that’s expected this summer. With the NDP losing their longtime incumbent DOLY BEG…

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🐰 PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m taking off for the long weekend. I’ll be back in your inbox bright and early next Tuesday. Happy Easter!

ABOVE THE FOLD

POLL WATCH — The PCs may be riding high in the polls, but the Liberals are right on their heels.

That’s the upshot from fresh Liaison Strategies polling out this morning that suggests that if an election were held today, 39 per cent would vote for the ruling Tories, while 36 per cent would pick the leaderless Liberals. The NDP clocked in at 18 per cent support with the Greens at 5 per cent.

While several pollsters have recently shown DOUG FORD’s popularity is slipping, some have attributed the Grit bump to what’s happening at the federal level — PM MARK CARNEY remains popular, and that could be rubbing off on his provincial cousins.

What’s telling in the latest from Liaison is how Ford is faring on hot-potato issues. An eye-popping 65 per cent disapprove of the job he’s doing as Premier, while 61 per cent the province is headed in the wrong …

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TEXAS TEA — If you want to understand why DOUG FORD is spending the week barnstorming Texas boardrooms and Republican offices, don’t start in Texas. Start back home, where his “Captain Canada” brand has become one of the more resilient political shticks at Queen’s Park.

By now, Ford’s pitch in Texas is a familiar one: tariff-free trade, “Fortress Am-Can,” supply chains, critical minerals, nuclear — Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE is also stateside — and a steady drumbeat that Ontario is not only open for business, but crucial to North America’s economy. The message is aimed at industry players and lawmakers. But the audience that matters most is still in Ontario.

Because here’s the thing: the Premier’s cross-border economic chest-thumping plays well at home. That “tough on tariffs” approach helped him lock down the 2025 election. And the timing of this year’s CUSMA talks allows him to keep it going.

Not everyone’s buying it. Opposition critics argue the Premier is overplayi…

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It’s the end of an era at the Pink Palace. Today marks the final day for PAUL DUBÉ, the man who has spent the last decade as Ontario’s Ombudsman, shining a light on some of the darkest corners of the provincial bureaucracy.

Taking up the mantle for Dubé, at least for now, is BARBARA FINLAY, the deputy ombudsman. That’s because the Legislature hasn’t finished its hiring process for Dubé’s replacement, and per the legislation, the deputy will take over in the interim.

Ahead of a summer on his bike and time with family, I sat down with the outgoing watchdog to talk about the powder keg that is Ontario’s correctional institutions, the bizarre rise of AI-generated complaints in his inbox, the awkward “merger” of the French Language Services Commissioner into his office, which politicians think he’s a “pain in the butt” and whether Ontarians are better off now than when he started.

Q+A — After a decade, what would you say is your proudest accomplishment in the office?Having b…

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Drama in Liberal land is heating up as the hotly contested nomination race for the Scarborough Southwest byelection and the leadership revs up.

Remember when I first told y’all federal MP and provincial hopeful NATE ERSKINE-SMITH called up SSW contender and past candidate QADIRA JACKSON and asked her to join his team?

Turns out Jackson wasn’t the only nomination rival Erskine-Smith tried to get to back down. Per the Star: “Another candidate who recently met with Erskine-Smith had a similar experience to Jackson.”

“‘He did not tell me directly I should stay out of the race, but he was indicating that, you know, eventually he will become leader of the party, and then potentially could be premier,’ said AHSANUL HAFIZ, a native of Bangladesh who came to Canada as a university student and now owns 30 Domino’s pizza franchises.”

The implication, according to the chatter among Grits, is that Erskine-Smith could have loosely promised his rivals other positions should they step a…

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It’s red ink for the foreseeable future in Ontario as Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY punted balance projections until fiscal 2028-29, blaming tough economic times. The deficit will balloon to an eye-popping $13.8 billion next year, while this year’s spending bill clocks in at a record $244 billion.

Here’s how folks are reacting to the fiscal plan (and read on for more highlights)…

MITCH DAVIDSON, a former executive director of policy to Premier DOUG FORD who helped craft past PC platforms, who’s now VP of policy at Enterprise Canada, said it’s clear “things are hard.”

“The Ontario government is a massive apparatus. Turning the ship in any direction takes time, commitment, and perseverance. This Ontario government has been trying to make changes toward fiscal responsibility for some time but lots of events outside of their control have gotten in the way.

There may never be a right time to get the fiscal house in order, but this Budget tells me they want to do it and …

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It’s Budget Day! All eyes will be on Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY as he tables the numbers that will shape the fiscal year ahead. Will we see the fine print for hot-potato FOI changes? Could there be tweaks to development charges? Is the government’s Toronto island airport takeover going to be fleshed out? Will Ontario ever get back into the black?

What’s for sure is that today’s fiscal blueprint will detail the HST cut for all new home purchases (scooped here). Premier DOUG FORD laid out the move in Mississauga yesterday, continuing the trend of leaking good-news nuggets ahead of the big day. The HST break will run for one year only, is estimated to spur 8,000 homes, could punch a $1-billion-plus hole in the treasury, and (perhaps reluctantly), has the feds on side. More on all that.

Bethlenfalvy hasn’t always been keen to give up that HST income for provincial coffers — Premier DOUG FORD previously said he got his “knuckles rapped” for suggesting it. That’s beca…

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Another raucous day inside and outside the Park. Let’s hop to it.

Inside the Legislature, DOUG FORD was again playing defence over his hot-potato move to gut freedom-of-information laws. A day earlier, the Premier contended it’s just the media and his political rivals who oppose the move — now, he’s taking potshots at privacy watchdog PATRICIA KOSSEIM, an independent officer of the Assembly.

The Information and Privacy Commish, whose office had ordered the release of Ford’s personal cellphone records that the government has been fighting in court, has pulled no punches in public interviews and opinion pages, saying Ford’s FOI changes amount to a government changes the rules of the oversight game when it becomes inconvenient.

Kosseim has also poked holes in Ford’s justification, noting that cabinet confidence and personal information like health records are already shielded from the public eye, and that instead of bringing Ontario in line with other jurisdictions, these c…

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THE DIN AND THE DRAMA — There was no easing into the first Question Period in 102 days, with Opposition laying into the government on freedom-of-information and beyond. The Speaker doled out warnings like nobody’s business — the Premier even cursed! — while dashing the NDP’s latest attempt to bring DOUG FORD’s cellphone records into the light. In true Ford form, the Premier hogged the spotlight from the House, making waves at his morning announcement at Toronto’s Billy Bishop airport. Let’s dig in.

NDP Leader MARIT STILES hammered Ford on his decision to shield himself and his front bench from FOI laws, but her hopes of getting the Premier’s personal cellphone records is dead on arrival.

Stiles and the NDP tried to go the procedural route, tabling a motion to request a Speaker’s warrant to compel the documents. It’s something the Legislature last used to open the financial books on Laurentian University during a dispute with the Auditor General.

But, and it’s a biggie: As…

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SPRING AWAKENING — After a very long 102-day winter hiatus, Premier DOUG FORD is finally hauling MPPs back to the Pink Palace this morning. But if you’re expecting a long, gruelling spring grind, think again: the legislative clock is ticking fast, with only 32 sitting days scheduled before the House is set to rise for summer break.

Before we dig in to all that, there’s another story brewing in Ottawa that poses a big threat to the current administration at Queen’s Park: the Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge of Quebec’s secularism law, Bill 21, which has morphed into a legal battle over the constitution itself, namely, the notwithstanding clause.

The Ford government has used the Charter-override prolifically, and Ontario is arguing as an intervenor along with some other provinces that having the courts weigh in would effectively undermine their strongest policy tool, provincial sovereignty and the intent of the constitution.

On the flip side, Ottawa is looking for l…

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While Premier DOUG FORD dominated headlines this week with a heated rant about getting tough-on-crime — lamenting that Ontario “wasn’t like this five years ago” in a not-so-veiled jab at immigrants — the Toronto Region Board of Trade is worried about a different kind of “crisis”: productivity.

Their recent report, Raising the Bar, argues that the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program is no longer “fit for purpose” and is failing to deliver the kind of talent required to drive long-term prosperity.

I sat down with SAAD USMANI, the Board’s senior director of economic research, to discuss why they believe the province has inadvertently created a backdoor for lower-skilled immigration and why the current focus on short-term labour gaps is undermining Ontario’s economic strength.

Your report calls for an urgent overhaul of the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program. What is the big takeaway from your research? The program is approaching 20 years since its inception, and it’s not so cl…

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Premier DOUG FORD went on a two-minute rant praising a Vaughan resident who shot at a home invader and the statues on the South Lawn will be covered up amid graffiti-spraying protests — but first: a pair of fresh polls suggest Ford is slipping in the public’s eye.

Honeymoon’s over: According to the Angus Reid Institute’s quarterly premiers’ performance survey, Ford’s approval has dropped to near-record lows, hitting 31 per cent and making him the second-to-last most popular premier, ahead of only Quebec’s FRANÇOIS LEGAULT, who is resigning.

What a difference a year makes. Per the pollster: “Ford’s role of ‘Captain Canada’ in the face of tariffs and annexation threats from U.S. President DONALD TRUMP revived the Ontario premier’s popularity. He was perhaps the most notable beneficiary of a ‘Trump bump’ after languishing near the bottom of ARI’s premier approval ratings for the previous two and a half years. The bump has smoothed out, and Ford is back to generating approv…

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DOUG FORD held an impromptu scrum with reporters at Queen’s Park. Here’s what you need to know.

Peppered with questions about his hot-potato changes to Freedom-of-Information laws, the Premier capitulated and said the move was to shield his personal cellphone records from the public — something the government has even gone to court over (even the cost of the legal battle remains a mystery).

“When it comes to a cabinet conversation within cabinet and on personal cellphones, that should not be FOI-able,” he said, then promptly accused reporters of wanting to expose individuals’ personal information.

“I know you guys, you’ll pull out every single number and someone’s health records.”

Despite that contention, such info would almost certainly be redacted, and most cabinet records are already guarded against release through “cabinet confidence” exemptions.

As for the “communist Chinese” — whom Ford previously blamed for the changes — he clarified it’s not exactly China that’s…

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Premier DOUG FORD weighed in on everything from his plans to gut FOI laws (blame communism!) to his questionable law-and-order crime solutions. But first: a compelling new federal poll is rippling out at Queen’s Park.

POLL WATCH — The latest survey from Mainstreet Research gamed out three scenarios for the what is expected to Ottawa’s next byelection, in Beaches-East York.

The riding is currently held by MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, who has promised to resign once the provincial byelection is called in Scarborough Southwest — something that was triggered by the defection of ex-Ontario NDP deputy leader DOLY BEGUM, who is now carrying the federal Grit banner in the riding formerly held by BILL BLAIR.

The results suggest that if Erskine-Smith — who is gunning for the provincial nomination in SSW and eyeing the leadership — had instead stuck around on the Hill, he would hold on to his seat handily, with 67 per cent support.

But if AVI LEWIS, a frontrunner in the federal NDP leade…

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A big news Friday — the Ford government is taking major flak for gutting Freedom of Information laws, accused of creating a distraction with a late-in-the-game injunction to stop a weekend Al Quds rally, and are getting mixed reviews for their decision to cut off funding for supervised drug injection sites. Let’s hop to it.

Secret secrets: Changes are coming to FOI laws that will shield the offices of the Premier, Cabinet Ministers, Parliamentary Assistants — leaving a handful of backbenchers on the political side, as well as public servants — from public scrutiny.

Public and Business Service Delivery Minister STEPHEN CRAWFORD gave word Friday, as part of a broader package of cybersecurity enhancements, insisting it’s a long overdue modernization that will ensure Cabinet decision-making can remain candid.

But, and it’s a biggie: Several exemptions already exist in the law, including cabinet confidence, which doesn’t allow for the release of the most sensitive documents su…

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The political corridors of Queen’s Park often host unlikely meetings, but a recent lunch in the basement cafeteria with NewsTalk 1010’s JERRY AGAR took a surprising turn.

As a few Liberals walked by us, they didn't just stop for a quick hello — they began gushing over Agar’s recent segments railing against City Hall. Specifically, they were on side with the viral rants amplified by IntegrityTO, a group often associated with right-leaning circles but one that is clearly catching attention across the aisle.

To dig deeper into this bipartisan buzz, I sat down with the man behind the digital movement, DANIEL TATE, to discuss Toronto's budget, his sometime-controversial social media posts, what the city needs from Queen’s Park, and whether he’s planning a run for Council himself.

I ran into a few Liberals at Queen’s Park recently who were perhaps surprisingly on side with your Yonge-Dundas Square t-shirts and even the taxpayer land acknowledgements. Does that bipartisan suppor…

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LABOUR PAINS — The Ford government insists it is still deciding the future of school board trustees.

Asked point-blank if trustees will be on civic ballots when municipal elections are held this fall, Premier DOUG FORD and Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA were cagey.

As I reported yesterday, sources with first-hand knowledge of the government discussions told me that they expect trustees to be “on the ballot,” though there would be more governance reforms to the role.

That said: it’s a hot-potato subject over which the government has gone back-and-forth, so the situation is still in flux.

Ford and Calandra wouldn’t give much away at a press conference in Etobicoke Wednesday, with Calandra insisting he’s still readying a suite of options for cabinet to consider.

“We’ll come out with an answer on that shortly,” Ford promised.

Calandra added he’s not going to cede control of the eight school boards currently under provincial supervision “until they’re on the right path” — ev…

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The countdown to the spring budget is on, with the Premier promising no cuts and the Finance Minister bracing for tough economic times. Meanwhile, a major player in Ford’s inner circle is making a comeback. Let’s get to it.

Set your calendars: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY tables the budget on March 26, which won’t come as a huge shock to regular readers.

Bethlenfalvy is warning this budget could be tight — something my sources mused about this week — especially with DONALD TRUMP’s tariffs, global conflict and trade pressures straining provincial finances.

Speaking at the Empire Club in Toronto, Bethlenfalvy said that means Ontario must be “prepared for tougher times” ahead, so expect “prudence” and a fiscal plan that puts “us in a strong position to weather economic shocks.”

Bethlenfalvy laid out six key budget themes: productivity and innovation, a competitive business environment, infrastructure and housing, trade, talent and work force, and reliable, affordable…

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