PROGRAMMING NOTE: A reminder that Queen’s Park Observer is on a planned hiatus this week — but alas! the drama persists. Here’s the latest.

Hello from a balmy beach in Europe, where provincial politics has roped me back in. There’s tension with teachers, municipalities and civil liberties groups, eyebrows being raised over the Premier’s private meetings, wild rumours about who could jump into the civic arena and loads more. Plus: I share something I’ve long promised to keep under wraps.

— MAYORS DISH: “Senior officials in a number of Ontario municipalities are pulling back the curtain on their working relationship with the Ford government, accusing the province of employing a “divide and conquer” strategy, using municipalities as a political “shield” and forcing mayors to walk a fine line.” Global News reports.

The story dropped during the Association of Municipalities of Ontario conference, where DOUG FORD cracked wise about sometimes forgetting he’s not a city councillor anymore. Th…

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🏝️ PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m taking off for a two-week summer vacation after Friday’s newsletter (no, it’s not Jamaica) and will be back in your inbox on August 31. As usual, I’ll pop back in if any wild breaking news drops, like, say, a cabinet shuffle or a certain integrity commissioner report. Here’s hoping absence makes the heart grow fonder. Time-off policy.

SUN, SAND, SURVEILLANCE

A whirlwind presser from Premier DOUG FORD — his first meeting with reporters in several weeks. Highlights:

The spy who loved oppo: Ford is catching some serious flak for his “politics-as-usual” defence after the PC Party reportedly paid for an operative to surveil then-Liberal leader BONNIE CROMBIE on her private vacation to a Jamaican resort in 2023.

“Stuff happens,” he told reporters. “Talk to the party. I don’t approve of it.” He insisted he only “just found out” about the covert operation and brushed it off as “$3,000 of the party’s money.”

But because donors get a tax credit and the PCs receive milli…

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After weeks of laying low amid not-so-stellar polling numbers and MPP expense drama, DOUG FORD will take questions from reporters who have been champing at the bit this morning in Guelph. Let’s play 20 Questions with the Premier.

— BOOZE NEWS: With reports that Canada could use the prospect of returning U.S. alcohol to our shelves as a bargaining chip during trade talks, where does Ford stand? The Premier has dug in his heels on the matter, saying he won’t re-stock American booze until there’s a “fair deal” on the table. Prime Minister MARK CARNEY had backed up the First Ministers who took a hard line on the booze boycott at this summer’s Council of the Federation meeting, but the big question is whether Ford — one of the more hawkish among them — is softening.

— PLANES AND TRAINS: Ford hasn’t personally addressed Ottawa’s quashing of jets at Billy Bishop airport, though his ministers have said they’re not giving up on the notion. Carney hasn’t ruled out ever bringing jets t…

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PRESS, PASS — Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA brushed off questions about why he and the Premier have been laying low, opting for photo-ops and flashy announcements with all the usual trappings of a press conference, sans actual reporters to ask questions.

It’s been several weeks since DOUG FORD met with reporters. We haven’t heard from him directly on how he feels about Prime Minister MARK CARNEY nixing the notion of jets at Billy Bishop (for now), or if he’s willing to put U.S. booze back on LCBO shelves to appease President DONALD TRUMP as the latest tariff deadline draws near. He hasn’t even taken the opportunity to riff on the Liberal leadership candidates after their first debate in which he featured heavily.

Ford has nevertheless been making moves — he’s written to the feds urging an extension of the gas tax cut, taken a pooled photo-op with Carney to mark an Ontario Line milestone (more on that momentarily), attended PC fundraisers and…

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I watched last night’s Liberal leadership debate so you don’t have to.

It’s the third time in six years that the party is on the hunt for a new captain, and while there were no major fireworks on stage, it was the first opportunity for card-carrying Grits to size up the contenders as the party looks to claw its way out of the electoral wilderness and capitalize on Premier DOUG FORD’s rocky political moment.

NAVDEEP BAINS, LEE FAIRCLOUGH, STEPHANIE BOWMAN, DYLAN MARANDO and ERIC LOMBARDI went toe-to-toe over 90 minutes, moderated by Trillium reporter TINA YAZDANI.

How they’re positioning themselves: Bains pumped up his federal experience as a cabinet minister, Fairclough boasted about turning a blue seat red and being a former hospital exec, Bowman said she has an edge as a former bank exec and accountant who understands the economy, Lombardi called himself the candidate of generational change, and Marando touted his experience in the backrooms of government.

Here’s eve…

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Less than one week after officially entering the ring, VIK HANDA is now bowing out of the race for Liberal captain.

Handa, a relative political outsider who supporters likened to Ontario’s version of ZOHRAN MAMDANI (much to the chagrin of New Democrats), had launched his campaign last Friday pitching a $22 minimum wage, rent freeze and free GO Transit.

Now, he’s taking himself out of the running and is poised to throw his support behind one of the five other remaining contenders.

“This was not an easy decision,” Handa said. But he wound up withdrawing “after taking a close look at the state of this leadership race and the political reality at Queen’s Park.”

A little birdie tells me at least one other candidate reached out to Handa since he joined the fray last week: perceived frontrunner NAVDEEP BAINS.

Generally speaking, it’s not unusual for the some political maneuvering to take place in leadership races, such as one candidate offering a competitor a high-profile po…

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TRIPLE THREAT — Premier DOUG FORD has called a September 3 byelection triple-header in Scarborough Southwest, Hamilton East–Stoney Creek and York–Simcoe — giving voters their first chance to weigh in after a bruising summer for his government.

Ford waited until the legal buzzer to call Scarborough Southwest, then lumped in the seats vacated by former cabinet ministers NEIL LUMSDEN and CAROLINE MULRONEY this summer.

The strategy: Scarborough Southwest is a longshot for the PCs, York–Simcoe is the must-hold and Hamilton is the wildcard. If they hold blue territory and avoid a blowout elsewhere, Ford can argue it’s business as usual.

Critics are pitching something bigger: a three-riding referendum on a government expense scandal that cost STAN CHO his cabinet gig (though he remains in caucus) and has put Ford’s taxpayer-watchdog brand on the ropes, according to a recent string of polling.

Pivot! The PCs are now trying to flip the script from what their MPPs spent to what the…

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It’s byelection(s) day!

By law, Premier DOUG FORD must call the byelection for Scarborough Southwest today, and since the writ is always dropped (yes, dropped, like an album, for all you electoral purists!) on a Wednesday and held on Thursdays, that would make E-Day September 3.

Senior sources have confirmed to me that we’re expecting a hat trick, including York-Simcoe and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.

Let’s game this out: While SSW is a longshot for the PCs, and HESC might be a bit more touch-and-go, they’re expected to hang on to York-Simcoe, so running three by-elections at once has its strategic advantages for the ruling party.

Losing the riding you haven’t held in decades (SSW) and winning the one you were expected to hold on to (YS) just keeps everything status quo.

That may be the best storyline the Premier can hope for after a rough couple of months and a spending scandal that is still doing damage. Case in point: The latest horse race from Abacus Data,…

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There’s a chest-high stack of unopened energy drinks next to a giant electoral map in FATIMA SHABAN’s campaign office on Kingston Road — and with the writ for the Scarborough Southwest byelection dropping tomorrow, her campaign team will likely start crushing them by the caseload.

Premier DOUG FORD has to trigger the SSW byelection tomorrow, making E-Day September 3.

Lay of the land: Scarborough Southwest has been Orange territory since 2018, when former NDP deputy leader DOLY BEGUM snatched what had long been a reliable Grit stronghold. But Begum’s defection to the federal Liberal arena earlier this year put the seat in play, and put Official Oppo Leader MARIT STILES’s ground game to an early test.

I’ll set the table tomorrow for what’s widely expected to be a hat trick of byelection calls, along with York-Simcoe and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. But today, let’s ease back into the post-holiday week with an inside look at the NDP’s battle plan in the e…

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☀️ PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m taking off for the civic holiday and will be back in your inbox bright and early on Tuesday. Happy long weekend!

MEDIA MELEES

DUMPED BY DUNLOP — Emergency Preparedness Minister JILL DUNLOP is blaming her press secretary — who was promptly turfed — after awkwardly yanking her boss off a live-to-air interview with the CBC.

“I was cut off by a staff member,” Dunlop said, pointing the finger at her ex-staff who has garnered sympathy on social media in spite of her rookie comms faux pas.

“It was a decision that was made by a staff member,” the minister added, though she didn’t clarify if she was actually still on the line while her staffer pulled the plug. “Like I said, it was unfortunate…but you know, I’m not here to discuss HR matters today…I’ve been very clear, I’ve been at the podium every opportunity, I’ve taken all media interviews, and will continue to be very transparent.”

BLOWING SMOKE — Dunlop was up with Natural Resources Minister MIKE HARRIS and (a very …

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Integrity Commissioner CATHRYN MOTHERWELL dropped her annual report and it’s chock-full of anonymous cases of public servants skirting ethics rules. At 62, disclosure of wrongdoing is at an all-time high. Meanwhile, the number of consultant lobbyists is on the rise.

The Commish isn’t naming names, but released general summaries of each case involving allegations against civil servants.

That includes: Managers and employees involved in hiring and supervising close personal friends or family, a public servant involved in decision-making impacting their spouse, another who dealt with an issue that they had a personal interest in, allegations of “gross mismanagement, grave danger and contravention of a law.”

The cases were investigated and, when public servants were found to have broken the rules, they were reprimanded.

Ministers and their staff were also dealing with ethics conundrums…

— One Parliamentary Assistant asked if it was OK to accept a ticket to a charita…

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As Premier DOUG FORD and his PC crew grapple with hit after hit over expenses, one question that keeps cropping up: who signed off on the charges?

STAN CHO, the now-former Tourism Minister and MPP for Willowdale, has been at the centre of the ongoing drama, charging taxpayers and donors thousands for hotels, intimate steak-and-lobster dinners, Jays suites and more.

In the case of Cho, PC Party president MICHAEL DIAMOND called me up to point out that it’s not the party’s CFO who approved Cho’s individual campaign and riding association spending.

So, who did?

Welcome to the Stan Cho universe, featuring two key players:

— BARB HORBACZYK, who has served as Cho’s chief financial officer since 2019, including for the 2022 and 2025 elections, as well as the riding association annually.

Horbaczyk has a financial background — she worked at RBC for more than two decades, and as CFO, would have approved all of Cho’s expenses. She also happens to be his mother-in-law.

Cho gave her a s…

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MARK CARNEY and DOUG FORD reportedly had a backroom deal to clear the runway for jets at Billy Bishop airport — until the Prime Minister abruptly pulled the plug. The reversal has left the Premier blindsided, Toronto City Hall circling, and plenty of unanswered questions about where the airport fight goes from here.

Ford had always intimated that Carney was on side, even if Carney was wishy-washy on the matter.

Now, we know why.

Juicy tidbits from the Star: Ford and Carney are close. But during the Premier’s latest private call to the Prime Minister — after the feds nixed jets abruptly on Friday night then triggered three byelections Sunday, including one on Toronto’s waterfront — Ford said he was “disappointed.” …

“‘The timing of the byelection call did not seem coincidental,’ said a source close to Ford.” …

“The move blindsided Queen’s Park. Ford and Carney…had even shaken hands to informally seal the deal at the premier’s Etobicoke home.” In exchange for not stan…

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MARK CARNEY has grounded DOUG FORD’s jet-setting dreams — testing their political bromance ahead of summer byelections and a simmering trade war.

It comes as the pair have been singing kumbaya and putting up a united front against tariff-happy neighbours to the south — the Premier regularly plays bad cop to Carney’s good cop, and even deferred to the Prime Minister to lead the way on the latest tariff threats from DONALD TRUMP. It was almost if that tiff over the RONALD REAGAN ad became a thing of the past.

But a bump in the honeymoon came on Friday, when the feds dropped the hammer on Ford’s high-flying dream to bring jets to Toronto’s Billy Bishop island airport. After a nearly two-month consultation that pulled in a staggering 87,000-plus responses, Ottawa is officially hitting the breaks on any expansion besides the safety expansion that’s already underway.

“We will not pursue any plans that infringe on treasured public spaces like Littl…

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POLL WATCH — Ford and the PCs are wrapping a rough week of bad-news headlines over MPP expenses, and the latest polling from Liaison Strategies suggests it’s doing some real damage.

Upshot: Ford’s approval has sunk to 24 per cent, while the leaderless Liberals take a five-point lead.

By the numbers: The Grits have 38 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, with the Tories trailing beyond the 3.1-per-cent margin of error at 33 per cent. The NDP may be capitalizing on the spending scandal, ticking up two percentage points to 24 per cent, while the Greens are at 2 per cent. Among all voters, 13 per cent are undecided.

“Those numbers are landing in the middle of an expense scandal, and that matter…

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— Premier DOUG FORD was singing kumbaya with his fellow first ministers during the COF wrap presser in Charlottetown, only to turn around and say he sometimes feels like he’s “standing alone protecting Canada.”

SCOOP — Putting up a united front may also come up for Ford closer to home on Friday, when he holds a “special” caucus meeting to talk about tariffs and wildfires — but with tensions high among PCs, things could get off track.

— Social media is losing its collective mind over JILL DUNLOP’s interview with the CBC, which was unceremoniously cut off by a staffer — and prompted a quick change on her comms crew.

— But first: It’s salt in the wounds for STAN CHO’s donors.

ALL TAKE, NO GIVE — After being forced to resign from the Tourism file in cabinet amid a legislative-and-party spending fiasco, the PC MPP for Willowdale is now getting called out for not contributing to the cause when it mattered.

According to Elections Ontario’s disclosures, Cho…

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Emergency Preparedness Minister JILL DUNLOP went on CBC’s As It Happens to manage the narrative on Ontario’s wildfire response, which is currently under heavy fire from First Nations leaders.

Instead, her team gave us a live-on-air panic attack.

The background: The Ford government has been taking flak over its response to wildfires ripping through the North, destroying homes and forcing people to leave their communities. Indigenous leaders are now demanding a public inquiry to look into the government’s lack of communication and slow evacuations.

Said Gull Bay Chief WILFRED KING: “[Premier DOUG FORD] praised himself and his government about what a wonderful job they were doing in fighting these fires. He’s creating the narrative so that he can basically lie to the Canadians and lie to the people of Ontario.”

Back to Dunlop: The minister was on the line to defend the government’s actions, pushing back on criticism from Nishnawbe Aski Nation Grand Chief ALVIN FIDDLER, who sa…

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Yesterday, I laid out $84K in taxpayer-subsidized expenses on the party side, including intimate steak and lobster dinners, swanky hotels, Jays suites — even a limo rental, per Global.

Sure, wining-and-dining supporters who may potentially host a big-ticket fundraiser on your behalf is one thing. Same goes for pizza and coffee for canvassers, or charging for hotels in Niagara, where the PCs hold conventions. After all, Cho’s expenses were signed-off on by the local association’s chief financial officer and Elections Ontario.

He wouldn’t be the first politician with questionable expenses, either. Recall: then-Grit captains BONNIE CROMBIE’s pricey wardrobe or STEVEN DEL DUCA’s style and image consultant.

But, and it’s a biggie: Organizers of all stripes know the challenge of raising money smack dab in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, and fancy restaurants make for bad optics.

Now, PC donors — who bankroll campaigns …

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News Fridays, am I right? Cheat sheet:

Fresh off a Northern swing and wildfire-fighting tour, the Premier is back at the podium this morning before heading East to the Council of the Federation…

Oppo critics aren’t buying embattled ex-minister STAN CHO’s excuse for racking up a $16K hotel bill at the Leg despite living six kilometres away…

And it ain’t (ahem, as one NDPer put it) “Cho-ver” yet: I’ve parsed Cho’s political party receipts — the expenses that are bankrolled by PC donors through his Willowdale riding association — and there are loads of swanky dinners, high-end hotels and more….

The hits just keep on coming: Days after Global News revealed Cho’s much-maligned $16k hotel tab, the former Tourism Minister announced his resignation, saying he had made a “mistake,” insisting all such expenses over the last three years were because of night sittings.

Critics are poking holes in his explanation, noting more than $6K was expensed last December, when MPPs didn’t sit past 8 p.m. And he shouldn’t be the only one to resign, the Liberals and NDP say, pointing out that several PCs have claimed overnight stays despite living within or around the 50-km border from the Leg.

Clubhouse mutiny: PC MPPs also aren’t happy with how L’affaire Hotel is shaking out. I’ve spoken to four members of caucus and cabinet who are feeling betrayed and even scapegoated because, initially, Premier DOUG FORD told them during a caucus meeting that they would only have to pay back expenses that didn’t meet “the spirit” of the (now-defunct) 50-km rule.

Then after serious blowback, Ford is now publicly saying they’ll have to pay back every single “penny.” Some MPPs believe their expenses were legit under the rules the PCs themselves pushed to loosen. At this point, it’s unclear how many besides Cho have paid up.

Dining out on donors’ dime: Cho, who has been relegated to the PC backbench, wasn’t only expensing the Legislature for hotels. Turns out that over the last two years, he’s racked up more than $84K in hospitality expenses on the PC party side.

That cash comes from PC donors — folks who believe in the cause who donate to help candidates win campaigns. Such contributions are subsidized by the taxpayer; they’re subject to a tax credit, and riding associations would receive a slice of the per-vote subsidy. The expense rules tend to be looser on the political party side — for example, candidates may splurge on pizza and coffee for door-knocking volunteers, or they might book a hotel for an out-of-town party fundraiser.

But Cho’s receipts from 2024 and 2025 — including his Willowdale constituency’s annual and campaign returns, as well as his candidate returns — show a big chunk of change was blown on intimate steak and lobster dinners (plus restaurants that appear to be out of province), Rogers Centre suites and Jays games, high-end hotels and more.

By the numbers — Restaurants:

• Sher-E-Punjab: $9,708

• The Albany Club: $7,164 (including catering and room rental)

• Nome Izakaya: $4,488

• St. Louis Bar & Grill: $4,037

• Galleria Supermarket: $3,166

• LCBO: $2,934

• Ernie’s Coffee Shop: $1,552

• Shanghai Restaurant: $1,538

• Daldongnae: $1,480

• Sushi Moto: $1,364

• Fishman Lobster Clubhouse: $1,212

• Dakgogi: $1,212

• Spago Trattoria: $1,184

• Boston Pizza: $1,178

• Mapo Korean BBQ: $1,131

• The Keg: $1,045

• Tim Hortons: $954

• Score on King: $924

• Duke of Cornwall: $755

• Congee Queen: $710

• Pizza Pizza: $681

• Barberian’s Steak House: $599

• Cagney’s Steakhouse: $589

• The Press Gang Restaurant: $569

• Pizza Nova: $552

• Gui Gui: $536

• Nortenos Taquiera: $530

• Stock Bar: $523

• Diana’s Oyster Bar & Grill: $505

• Lot 66 Restaurant: $497

• Piano Piano: $474

• 3 Bears Brewery and Restaurant: $453

• Durty Nelly’s Irish Pub: $429

• Niche Lounge: $409

• 28 On The Lake: $408

• The Auld Spot Pub: $343

• Just a Bite: $330

• Subway $321

• Clock Tower Inn: $318

• McDonalds: $302

• Lone Star Texas Grill: $291

• Beer Store: $281

• Cactus Club Cafe: $272

• Armando’s Pizza: $264

• Uber Eats: $260

• The Grand Pizzeria and Bar: $247

• College Street Mercatto: $231

• Tim Hortons: $230

• Shibui Sushi Japanese Eatery: $227

• Bench Brewing Company: $224

• Deville Dinerbar: $220

• Garden Grille Restaurant: $220

• Gatherings Restobar: $220

• Palomino Smokehouse: $216

• The Bracebridge Barrelhouse: $206

Hotels:

• Niagara Mariott On the Falls: $4,781

• Fairmont Chateau Laurier: $1,960

• Hilton Niagara Falls/Fallsview: $1,344

• Holiday Inn: $1,054

• Sofitel Montreal Golden Mile: $971

• Hilton Honors: $687

• Hilton Garden Inn: $590

• Niagara Fallsview Marriott: $451

• Sandman Hotel Group: $379

• Holiday Inn Express & Suites: $275

• Fairmont Palliser: $274

Rogers Centre:

• Rogers Centre, Toronto Blue Jays (filed under “meetings hosted”: $6,970

• Rogers Centre, (for “suite rental” and food and beverages): $3,668

Bottom line: Cho may have been sent back to the dugout — but with tensions rising within the PC caucus, Opposition rivals not willing to let this go quietly, and more reporters digging into receipts — Ford’s expense headache looks like it’s going into extra innings.

SHUFFLE UP

Cho isn’t the only weekend Cabinet exit: NEIL LUMSDEN, Sport Minister and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek rep, is calling it quits, something that’s been expected for some time. Lumsden has been dealing with family health issues.

Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY is handling Tourism and Sport in the meantime — dousing gasoline on chatter that the hotly anticipated summer cabinet shuffle could come sooner than later.

One thing factoring into the Premier’s shuffle plans could be the Integrity Commissioner’s investigation into the Skills Development Fund and Labour Minister DAVID PICCINI. There’s no way to know what’s in the report until it’s out, but it wouldn’t be the first time Ford has been forced to shake-up his front bench after an IC report (Greenbelt, anyone?). Sun columnist Brian Lilley has our favourite parlour game: who’s in and who’s out.

SCOOP — Chief out, too: CREED ATKINSON, chief of staff at Tourism since 2024, and before that, senior SolGen staffer since 2020, has left the building. Atkinson will be replaced by Cho’s deputy chief LINTON TAYLOR.

Hat trick: Lumsden’s departure also triggers a byelection. His actual resignation date (August 4), suggests the PCs could call Hamilton East-Stoney Creek along with York-Simcoe and Scarborough Southwest on August 5, the last day to call the latter. That would make E-Day September 3.

HAPPENING TODAY

DOUG FORD’S MONDAY — 10:30 a.m.: The Premier is up in Toronto again with Natural Resources Minister MIKE HARRIS and Emergency Preparedness Minister JILL DUNLOP.

9:30 a.m.: Environment Minister TODD McCARTHY is in Bowmanville.

10 a.m.: Liberal interim leader JOHN FRASER is in the Media Studio to talk about hotel-gate. Spoiler alert: On Friday, Fraser told reporters Cho’s resignation still leaves questions and said other PCs who have billed five-figures for hotels should also step down.

5:30 p.m.: Liberal leadership contender LEE FAIRCLOUGH is headlining a meet and greet at Edelweiss Tavern in Kitchener.

CLIPPINGS

— WILDFIRE WATCH: “U.S. President DONALD TRUMP’s attacks on Canada over wildfire smoke spreading across the border are “unacceptable,” Premier DOUG FORD said Saturday” as he toured Thunder Bay (he also did a hit with ABC south of the border). Ford, whose government has faced criticism for its wildfire response, especially from First Nations, said it was a “miracle” nobody had died. The government has also expanded its emergency messaging system.

— SUMMER OF STAN II: Much ink is being spilled on STAN CHO’s hotel imbroglio. As the Globe’s Robyn Urback writes: “The DOUG FORD of old would have never tolerated these sorts of indulgences…But things change when you’ve spent eight years getting everything you want, with only the most anemic of opposition in the legislature. Animals with no natural predators become flabby and complacent. They over-indulge. They buy private jets. They expense hotel rooms. They change freedom-of-information request rules so they are less accountable to the public.” Read on.

Meanwhile, one former ERNIE EVES-era Tory cabinet minister shared some topical advice they received back in the day: “Rule number one: If you can’t eat it, drink it or smoke it in one session, then it’s a bribe. Rule number two: What does this look like on the front page of the Toronto Star tomorrow?”

— BAINS ON PLANES: After coming off a bit wishy-washy re: his stance on the province’s plans to expand Toronto’s Billy Bishop island airport, Liberal leadership contender NAVDEEP BAINS is saying, er, something: “With the consultations wrapping up this week, I want to be direct: any path to modernizing the airport needs to involve its surrounding communities. This Conservative government’s plan is a failure.” That’s not a hard “no” to any expansion — just to Ford’s version. Bains has said he’s waiting for the feds consultation results to seriously weigh in. His rivals, like MPP LEE FAIRCLOUGH, have been more blunt in opposing those plans.

Also in Liberal land: TOM ALLISON, a veteran of Liberal campaign war rooms, held forth on the Culture Lab podcast, saying that the most important thing for a leadership contender comes down to one simple thing: “money.”

“It’s usually the case that the top spender wins these leadership contests.” That would be Bains, who’s making it rain to the tune of $300K-plus.

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