Dark money on the Danforth
And "where is Stiles's star candidate?"
Brought to you by Circular Materials
HOW A STOREFRONT EXPOSES THE ‘WILD WEST’ OF ELECTION LAWS
A campaign office on Toronto’s Danforth Avenue is drawing scrutiny in political circles — not because it breaks the rules, but because it exposes how much political activity can happen before the rules apply.
At issue is a little-known feature of Ontario’s election law: the period before a nomination contest is officially declared.
NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, the federal MP and provincial leadership hopeful who’s gunning for the May 9 Liberal nomination in the yet-to-be-called Scarborough Southwest byelection, cut the ribbon on his campaign office weeks before he was even green-lit as a contestant.
According to Elections Ontario, that’s A-OK — would-be nomination contestants are allowed to fundraise and spend money for their unofficial campaigns. That activity isn’t regulated by the electoral agency until the party actually calls the contest.
But, and it’s a biggie: While most contestants spend during the pre-regulated period, it tends to be relatively small potatoes — pizza for volunteers, campaign literature and flyers — however, Erskine-Smith also secured his campaign’s HQ on the Danforth, prime real estate in a housing climate where rents are sky-high.
The office itself isn’t the story. The timing is: Because the contest hadn’t officially begun, any funds used to lease or operate that space fall into the pre-regulated period and beyond the reach of disclosure requirements that would otherwise apply.
It’s entirely legal — and Team Nate insists all rules are being followed — but it’s also largely opaque.
The current rules mean that Elections Ontario’s framework, which sets donation limits, spending caps and mandatory public disclosures on who is contributing (no corporations allowed), only kicks in once the contest is called.
Until then, prospective candidates are operating outside the transparency regime. They can raise money, lease office space, build campaign infrastructure and take out pricey billboards (though this one on the riding’s border appears to be from Erskine-Smith’s federal side) — all without reporting who is paying or how much is being spent.
“We could have a longer open season of unregulated money than we have regulated money in the contest period. This isn’t a loophole. This is an underground tunnel big enough to take a transport through,” said one senior ranking Liberal who has handled campaign finances for parties and candidates.
Alas, in modern politics, organizing happens well ahead of the official paperwork. Campaigns often begin in earnest months before the formal trigger is pulled, which creates a gap between the political reality on the ground and the regulatory oversight in law. By the time a contest is officially called, significant financial and organizational advantages may already be in place, with scant visibility into how they were built.
The big question: Organizers in the hotly-contested SSW nomination, including some from rival camps, are now asking whether the rules reflect how campaigns actually operate.
“We may never know who or how this is all being paid for, but them’s the rules,” said one operative. “The most consequential part of a campaign may actually be the one that happens before anyone is required to report it.”
IN THE NDP CORNER — Meanwhile, New Democrats will pick their contender in the hopes of keeping Scarborough Southwest orange.
After losing deputy leader DOLY BEGUM to the federal Liberals, the NDP will hold their nomination contest tonight to choose the candidate for the upcoming byelection that’s expected this summer.
In the ring…
FATIMA SHABAN: Arguably the most visible name in the race after running federally in the riding earlier this month. Shaban works with The Salvation Army and organizes with housing advocacy group ACORN…
VERONICA JAVIER: A social worker at Scarborough Health Network who was the NDP candidate in neighbouring Guildwood in 2022…
KHALID AHMED: A financial analyst and another past NDP candidate across the GTA with runs dating back more than a decade.
The tension: Shaban’s recent federal result, widely noted among insiders as a weak showing, is being read two ways: critics say it’s a vulnerability, supporters say it’s proof of her ground-game readiness and name-recognition advantage.
One rival party operative put it bluntly: “The NDP will choose between the person who already lost the riding federally, the person who lost next door provincially, or the person who’s lost multiple GTA races. Where’s MARIT STILES’s star candidate?”
No matter who the parties choose to run, the stakes are high for everyone: New Democrats are looking to hold on to their seat after losing a popular incumbent, the Liberals are pretty much holding a proxy battle ahead of a leadership contest this fall, and the PCs will look to secure their majority as DOUG FORD slips in the polls (more on that below).
HAPPENING TODAY
DOUG FORD’S TUESDAY — 5:30 p.m.: The Premier is headlining a $1,000-a-plate fundraiser in Mississauga alongside local rep SHEREF SABAWY.
10 a.m.: NDPers CHRIS GLOVER, KRISTYN WONG-TAM and ALEXA GILMOUR are in the Media Studio to talk about the Ford government’s plans for the Toronto islands.
10 a.m.: Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND and Natural Resources Minister MIKE HARRIS JR. are making an announcement in Toronto.
11:30 a.m.: Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA is up in Kilworth.
1 p.m.: Health Minister SYLVIA JONES is in Brampton.
7 p.m.: Liberals JOHN FRASER and LUCILLE COLLARD are hosting a virtual town hall in Ottawa.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
9 a.m.: Housing Minister ROB FLACK kicks off (truncated) public hearings on Bill 100, his housing and transit package, at Heritage, Infrastructure and Cultural Policy. Also on the witness roster: Association of Municipalities of Ontario, Regions of Peel and Durham, City of Niagara Falls, CUPE. And the rest.
A message from Circular Materials
From Waste to Work: How Recycling Reform Is Driving $300M in Investment
Circular Materials is a national, not-for-profit, producer-governed organization in Canada that manages extended producer responsibility recycling programs. Here, CEO ALLEN LANGDON runs down the latest changes to recycling in Ontario.
Let’s start simple — what is Ontario’s new blue box system and why did the government change it? Ontario has shifted the cost and responsibility of curbside recycling away from municipalities and to producers that supply packaging and paper products to consumers. This includes the familiar brands and retailers Ontarians interact with every day. This means municipalities and taxpayers no longer pay for recycling services as this cost is now paid by producers.
It’s called Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR). EPR is an effective mechanism to improve recycling rates and advance a circular economy where materials are collected, recycled and returned to producers for use as recycled content in new products and packaging. The goal is straightforward: better recycling, lower taxpayer burden, and a system that drives recycling and significant diversion.
So taxpayers are off the hook? Yes. The costs of blue box recycling were previously paid in large part by municipalities, and your property taxes. Not anymore. Producers that supply packaging and paper materials in Ontario now cover 100 percent of these costs. But there’s a catch. The system needs to be designed efficiently to manage costs. Keep in mind that additional costs to businesses are typically passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Nobody wants that, so we’re working hard to ensure it doesn’t happen.
What role does Circular Materials play in the system? Circular Materials has two roles in the Ontario system. It is a national not-for-profit that helps producers meet their EPR obligations and is also responsible for administrating the recycling program on behalf of several other Producer Responsibility Organizations (PROs) in Ontario. Ontario has chosen a different approach than other provinces by having multiple PROs.
Let’s go back to waste diversion — how does EPR get waste out of landfills? It aligns incentives because producers of recyclable materials are responsible for their full life cycle. They have skin in the game to ensure their packaging is as easy to recycle as possible, because it keeps costs lower for them and their customers. And let me tell you, our producers are amazing. They’re actively working together on innovative and sustainable product design to achieve just this.
With all this investment in recycling and innovation, is EPR also creating jobs? The transition to EPR has seen hundreds of millions of dollars invested in Ontario. Modern recycling facilities that take advantage of the latest technology are springing up across the province alongside well-paid jobs, not to mention supply chain and construction jobs to build and service these facilities providing over $300 million in investments into the province.
CLIPPINGS
— POLL WATCH: “Premier DOUG FORD’s jet fiasco is causing his Progressive Conservatives to lose altitude and giving a lift to the leaderless Liberals, a new poll suggests. The Abacus Data survey found the Tories at 37 per cent, their lowest level of support in two years, with the Liberals, who will elect a new leader on Nov. 21, at 36 per cent, MARIT STILES’ New Democrats at 17 per cent and MIKE SCHREINER’s Greens at five per cent.” The Star has the latest.
Meanwhile, the NDP, Greens and Liberals have all now written to the Auditor General asking for an investigation into the buying and reselling of Ford’s jet. No word on whether the AG will take that on specifically beyond their usual annual auditing.
— PRICKLY PREMIER: “What’s going on with DOUG FORD? The typically affable premier has been particularly prickly over the past few weeks. How will the public respond?” TVO’s Steve Paikin delves in.
— IN-OFFICE POLITICS: “Ford regularly worked from home in January, even as civil servants were ordered back to the office five days per week. A copy of the premier’s itinerary obtained by Global News using freedom of information laws shows that over five weeks from early January, Ford took many meetings at his house or virtually.”
Against the backdrop of provincewide health care protests this weekend, Ford on Monday unveiled the site of Southlake Health’s new hospital in East Gwillimbury. He also gave thoughts and prayers to the OPP officer killed in the line of duty in Cobourg.
— COMBATIVE CALANDRA: “As a legislative committee met at Queen’s Park to study a government bill that would significantly water down the role of school board trustees, Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA began grilling union leaders about his own legislation, leading to criticism that he was “rude,” “disrespectful,” and “inappropriate.” Global News reports.
Meanwhile: “A governance revamp has left trustees with limited roles. While a TDSB trustee is hesitating to run again, others say they can still be constructive.” The Star digs in.
— IN THE SAULT: “Ontario is giving Sault Ste. Marie $500,000 from its trade-impacted fund to lure foreign investment, as the city pivots from the volatile U.S. market and touts potential new port along with the steel and forestry industries.” More from CTV News.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Beef lasagna with salad and garlic bread.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 22 days until Spring Fling…99 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Scarborough Southwest…207 days until the Liberals name a new leader.