Queen's Park Observer

Queen's Park Observer

How to read tonight’s byelection results

Three ridings, one big test

Sabrina Nanji's avatar
Sabrina Nanji
Sep 03, 2026
∙ Paid

WHAT TONIGHT COULD TELL US

Ontarians head to the polls in three ridings today. Here’s how to read the byelection tea leaves.

HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK — This is the nail-biter. Arguably the biggest toss-up of the three ridings, HESC is anybody’s game.

The PCs are gunning hard to keep the seat vacated by retired Sport Minister NEIL LUMSDEN, who wrested the riding from the NDP in 2022. Party resources are being deployed to that riding more than others, including some government staff who are taking the day off to get out the vote (either by force or by virtue of being good soldiers).

The edge: Running candidate JEFF BEATTIE’s campaign is BLAIR HAINS, the chief of staff to the Finance Minister with a number of local wins under his belt, including Lumsden’s and the nail-biter 2024 byelection in Milton.

Premier DOUG FORD, who’s been out door-knocking in the Hammer, also chose the Hamilton area to erect his giant $25K “Lake Ontario, Now and Always” sign — which, along with his Trump bump, co…

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