How Rob Cerjanec's leadership exit is rippling out in Liberal land
And how the parties stack up financially
If you thought the race for Liberal leader was settling into a predictable groove, think again: the chess pieces are getting majorly rearranged this week now that ROB CERJANEC is officially bowing out of the contest, which I scooped last night.
Meanwhile, Oppo war rooms have had plenty of summer ammo thanks to a steady drumbeat of rough polling and bad headlines for the government. But DOUG FORD’s PCs are proving once again that a bad news cycle doesn’t hurt their bottom line as they crush Q2 fundraising.
Plus: the Energy Minister has a new director of policy. Let’s dig in.
CERJANEC OUT — A major shakeup in Liberal land as Cerjanec — the MPP who poached Ajax from the incumbent PCs in the last election — took himself out of the running for leader.
Officially: Cerjanec isn’t saying much about the why, only that he made the “difficult” decision to “suspend” his campaign after “considerable reflection and conversations” with family, supporters and colleagues.
Unofficially: There’s a few theories floating around out there (stay tuned!) but the most prominent is the money factor.
As first reported in this newsletter, Cerjanec wasn’t even on the fundraising board while his rivals were raking in six-digit figures. And when he did disclose his contributions so far, it paled in comparison to the other contenders. As of last night, his campaign had posted $89,855 in donations, which still doesn’t come close to his opponents. (For those keeping count: Leadership contestant ERIC LOMBARDI is finally on the board: $120,758.)
Sources close to Team Cerjanec tell me the party’s fundraising timelines and $50,000-debt ceiling proved too big a challenge.
While the campaign had secured pledges from donors, the party requires certain payments by certain dates (including a $150K entry fee), and fundraising during summer isn’t exactly a cakewalk — especially for a third-place party in the midst of their third recent leadership race with a crowded field.
Speaking to supporters last night, Cerjanec said he made the decision now, four-and-a-half months before a new leader is named, rather than hang in there “without a realistic path forward.”
Cue the kingmaker: The now-defunct campaign may still be warm, but the other wannabe leaders, NAVDEEP BAINS, LEE FAIRCLOUGH, DYLAN MARANDO and Lombardi, will soon be scrambling to secure a possible endorsement from Cerjanec, who says it’s too early to make any decisions.
Cerjanec himself was backed by Liberal MPP and Finance critic STEPHANIE BOWMAN, who at one point was considering a leadership bid herself — some organizers are hopping back on the Bowman bandwagon and encouraging her to run. The deadline to enter the race is July 31.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — I’ve tallied up the political parties fundraising hauls for the second quarter of this year, and — surprise, surprise! — the ruling PCs continue to blow their opponents out of the water.
While that’s nothing new, what’s notable this time around is that the PCs have been framing their barrage of fundraising emails as a “byelection preparedness fund” — suggesting the Scarborough Southwest and York-Simcoe races are imminent (Recall: the latter must be called by August 5, and the PC candidate nomination goes down Thursday). Byelections also raise the bar on donation thresholds: Supporters can cough up an extra $3,425 per local candidate, in addition to the $5,000 annual limit.
Also: DOUG FORD has had a rough couple months in the polls after the private jet fiasco and getting booed at Ford Fest, to name a few headaches. But that hasn’t hampered his moneymaking prowess.
Regular readers will know the drill by now: Elections Ontario’s disclosures come with a reporting lag and don’t include smaller donations under $200, so these tallies will almost certainly be higher than internal records — something that particularly impacts the NDP, which tends to attract smaller donors, rather than the PCs, who have deep-pocketed supporters.
By the numbers:
The PCs raked in $2,406,839 during April, May and June of this year, with 1,894 folks giving an average of $1,271
The NDP recorded $389,703 in Q2, with 2,887 supporters donating an average $135
Liberals: $102,314 over the last three months, with 941 donors contributing an average $108. Note: this doesn’t include leadership hauls, which I last rounded up here.
Greens: $121,193 from 983 donors giving an average of $123.
HAPPENING TODAY
DOUG FORD’S MONDAY — 9 a.m. Mountain time/11 a.m. in Ontario: The Premier is trekking to Stampede country and holding a presser with Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH ahead of the Council of the Federation meeting later this month. What’s the over/under on someone lassoing a fresh belt buckle? Catch the livestream.
9 a.m.: Housing Minister ROB FLACK is in London alongside Mayor JOSH MORGAN.
2 p.m.: Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND is in Belleville.
Lieutenant Governor EDITH DUMONT is touring Kenora this week.
CLIPPINGS
— IN OTTAWA: “Ottawa city councillors and local MPPs have signed an open letter calling for more assistance from the provincial government following last week’s record-breaking rainstorm…Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE said he had spoken to Premier DOUG FORD about support for the city and residents impacted by flooding.” More from CTV News.
— HOEKSTRA PARTY: “U.S. Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA’s speech at his Fourth of July party in Ottawa included a political nudge aimed at Canada, with American F-35 fighter jets flying over the crowd and a comment about some provinces’ bans on American booze.” CBC reports.
— MZ-OH NO: “For years, the big debate around Port Dover has been fresh perch or pickerel for your fish and chips at the Erie Beach Hotel, a hot spot since 1946. Now it’s yes or no to the MZO in a battle over development and employment versus preserving farms and the area’s rural character as Premier Doug Ford’s government scrambles to ease a housing shortage and create jobs across Ontario.” The Star has the story.
— NO CAP: “Ontario’s World Cup matches have come and gone with ticket resale platforms running afoul of a new price cap law but seemingly facing no penalties from the province.” CityNews reports.
— CRITICAL MINERALS CASH: “The province has announced up to $4 million in funding for projects that help develop Ontario’s critical mineral supply chain.” Via CTV.
— PROTESTS APLENTY: Protesters are taking their fight to PC MPP offices, including that of KINGA SURMA, who’s on parental leave, where things got intense.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
JENIFFER CUNLIFFE is taking over as press secretary to Premier DOUG FORD. Cunliffe previously handled comms for Trade Minister VIC FEDELI, and will be covering for GRACE LEE, who’s going on maternity leave (congrats!).
JAY TULIPANO has been promoted to director of policy to Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE. Tulipano joins KYLE NIETVELT, who recently took on D-Pol on the Mines side of the file (scooped here).
GRAHAM O’BRIEN has been promoted to senior policy adviser to Social Services Minister MICHAEL PARSA.
Beyond the bubble: RAHUL BEDI — former deputy chief of staff and head of policy to Premier DOUG FORD, now senior GR and partnerships director at Hydro One (scooped by yours truly) — has been named to the board of the Ontario Centre of Innovation. He’s also poised for a part-time appointment to the University of Waterloo’s board of governors.
Wanted: Regional chair job postings are now online — much to the chagrin of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, which has called on the Ford government to reverse its “undemocratic” move to appoint strong chairs to oversee elected officials.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Liberal MARY-MARGARET McMAHON (Beaches-East York)…Tory operative JENNI BYRNE…Global News’s ISAAC CALLAN
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Chicken chow mein with vegetables.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 3 days until the PCs nominate a candidate for Scarborough Southwest…30 days until the Premier has to call the SSW byelection…41 days until AMO…113 days until the House reconvenes…138 days until the Liberals name a new leader…149 days to call a byelection in York-Simcoe.
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