Crombie returns, Ford fumes, and PCs set a date
Plus: Liberal leadership hauls
Brought to you by the Ontario Pharmacists Association
CASH, COMEBACKS, CONTESTS AND CLAP BACKS
In today’s scoop-filled edition: DOUG FORD is popping off on pollsters, Liberal leadership hopefuls are flexing their fundraising muscle (or not), and the PCs are throwing open their doors in Scarborough Southwest. But first: BONNIE CROMBIE is plotting an imminent comeback in Mississauga.
A POLITICAL HOMECOMING — In what might be the worst-kept secret in provincial politics since last year’s snap election, BONNIE CROMBIE appears poised to return to her old stomping grounds in Mississauga.
The former provincial Grit captain has for months kept coy about her potential bid to jump into the mayoral race, and Crombie’s camp is still staying quiet (at least when it comes to this reporter’s questions).
But chatter in the 905 — including from folks who reportedly heard it from Crombie herself — suggests she could officially launch her bid on or around June 22.
This time, it’s a whole new ball game.
Crombie left the mayor’s desk to take a run at provincial politics, only to wind up without a seat at Queen’s Park and without the Liberal leadership. So while she was a popular mayor, a return to City Hall also risks looking, to some voters, more like a consolation prize than a victory lap.
And it’s hardly a coronation. She’d be entering an already crowded field that includes incumbent CAROLYN PARRISH (with whom there’s no love lost), Councillor ALVIN TEDJO and Councillor and ex-MPP DIPIKA DAMERLA. Slim pickings: Many local campaign operatives have already picked teams and could be harder to recruit.
She may also be facing a familiar foe in Premier DOUG FORD, who has said he’d send “an army” to block her from reclaiming her old City Hall seat, while praising Parrish. Ford’s blessing has been a kiss of death in past civic races (ahem, MARK SAUNDERS), but Crombie is no stranger to the political damage the Ford Nation war room can do.
So don’t call it a comeback — yet.
OPEN BOOKS — Meanwhile, the money race is on in Liberal leadership land, and so far, it’s a three-person game.
As of yesterday, only three of the five contenders had posted their cash hauls on Elections Ontario’s real-time disclosure dashboard. Here’s how they stack up:
NAVDEEP BAINS, a frontrunner who has boasted his money-making prowess by already raising the $150K entry fee, and whom the PCs have been quick to saddle with TRUDEAU-era baggage, has brought in $297,677 from 182 donors giving an average of $1,644
LEE FAIRCLOUGH, the MPP who poached Etobicoke-Lakeshore from the Tories last year, has brought in $126,660 from 77 supporters and an average donation of $1,667
DYLAN MARANDO, former backroom operative in the PMO and PO, clocked in at $97,864 from 108 folks giving an average $915.
Bains is blowing his opponents out of the water, Fairclough boasts the biggest cheques on average, but Marando has a broader base than Fairclough. It’s early days, so ROB CERJANEC and ERIC LOMBARDI aren’t on the scoreboard yet, but optics-wise, it isn’t exactly a strong look.
Why it matters: It’s not all about the money in a leadership race, but it does provide a solid gauge of early organization, donor reach and campaign momentum. And that goes a long way when you’re gunning to steer a third-place party that’s been trying to claw its way out of the political wilderness since 2018.
Caveat: These are real-time disclosures, which usually come with a two-week reporting lag, so the tallies could shift once Elections Ontario does its audit.
It’s open disclosure season! I’ve been parsing year-end party financial returns — catch up on the biggest payouts for the PCs, NDP and Greens, and stay tuned for the Liberal receipts. Wondering what your coworker or competition got paid? Send me their names: sabrina@qpobserver.ca.
OPEN RACE — After GARY CRAWFORD bowed out of the running, the PCs will hold an open nomination contest to pick their candidate for the soon-to-be-called byelection in SSW.
I suggested as much yesterday, and the party’s nominations committee made the decision to hold a contest later that morning. The race will take place on July 9, with speeches at 4 p.m., voting ‘til 8:30 p.m., and results around 10 p.m.
There are four contestants on the board: ASM TARUN, a family physician who ran for the federal Tories in the 2025 election…MURSHED NIZAM, an accountant…AYESHA SARDAR, a community organizer…GAZI SIJAN, an HR professional.
It’s somewhat unusual for the Ford PCs to hold an open nomination contest for a byelection, but it’s not totally rare — there was a local race to pick the candidate for the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex race back in 2024.
As one insider has noted, running a drama-free nomination would be an opportunity to show the Liberals “how it’s done” after their own messy contest.
Scarborough Southwest is a long-shot for the PCs — they haven’t held the riding in more than two decades, and the incumbent NDP and Grit challengers already have a leg-up on the ground game as their respective candidates FATIMA SHABAN and AHSANUL HAFIZ have been door-knocking for weeks.
Since byelections are called on Wednesdays and held on Thursdays — and assuming the PCs would wait to lock in their candidate before dropping the writ — E-Day could be called July 15 with a vote set for August 13. It must be held by September 3.
One byelection the PCs are expected to hold on to is York-Simcoe, and party insiders are talking up SUSAN LAHEY, the local riding association president (who actually won a party award for it) and part-time councillor in East Gwillimbury. Why she’s got an edge.
A message from the Ontario Pharmacists Association
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To learn more, visit YourPharmacyCares.ca.
HAPPENING TODAY
11 a.m.: Municipal Affairs and Housing Parliamentary Assistant MATT RAE is in St. Catharines alongside Mayor MAT SISCOE and Welland Mayor FRANK CAMPION.
11:15 a.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES and local rep CATHERINE McKENNEY are holding a presser in Ottawa, to talk about extreme heat stress in schools and apartments. The NDP have a private member’s bill on the Order Paper to tackle the issue. Also on hand: Ottawa ACORN Vanier chapter chair BADER ABU-ZAHRA and Ottawa U Student Union advocacy commissioner NORAH BELLO.
CLIPPINGS
— FORD FUMES: “Premier DOUG FORD is lashing out at a non-profit pollster after the organization recorded a steady drop in his support, culminating in his worst level of support since taking office in 2018.”
Ford called the Angus Reid Institute’s poll “fake” and suggested they surveyed “the NDP and Liberal caucus.”
“Our polling, along with other polling show — since you brought it up, I don’t like boasting and bragging — if an election was held today, we’re at 41 per cent, we’d win a massive majority once again.”
The pollster, which pegged his approval at a paltry 21 per cent and dead-last among all the Premiers, clapped back: “While it is not surprising for a premier with a comparatively low approval rating to express unhappiness with the data, we note that Premier Ford has at times been among the most approved-of provincial leaders in the country based on data from this same quarterly survey. We note he did not express a problem with Angus Reid polling then.” More from Global News.
Naturally, Ford weighed in on a slew of other topics at his Thunder Bay presser…
On NDPer SOL MAMAKWA’s call to close the “death trap” that is the Thunder Bay jail, after his nephew died while incarcerated: “We just want to make sure we get some consultation. We built a nice jail, a very nice jail up here. Matter of fact, it looks like the Four Seasons Hotel. I’m not sold on that. When people commit crimes, they shouldn’t be in this fancy, dancy jail, but we’re gonna invest in it. Let’s see what we do with the old jail. Do we renovate it? Because we need more cells.” He then riffed on “weak-kneed” judges and the feds over bail reform.
On the Ring of Fire: Ford told reporters they “got me on a roll…The province has put up $1 billion to build roads and help with the airports. Guess how much the feds have put up? Zip, zero, zilch.”
On the safety of Highways 11 and 17, something local NDP critics say isn’t happening fast enough: “We’ve had a lot of accidents, unfortunately, a lot of deaths on those highways…Safety is a priority,” Ford said, noting MTO and the OPP have pulled 18 trucks off the road and laid 76 charges, while the government has earmarked $600M to expand and repair infrastructure in the North.
On striking OPSEU-repped social service workers, who were also rallying in Thunder Bay: “It’s not the province, I keep stressing this. This is the service providers.” He added “we give…a lot of money” and “strikes never work, everyone gets hurt.”
The actual announcement: $2.4 million to upgrade the Port of Thunder Bay and the Peninsula Harbour Port Authority in Marathon…$958,500 for the Port Arthur Health Centre.
— PLAN B: “Outgoing Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is considering running for Toronto city council, and has discussed the possibility with Mayor OLIVIA CHOW.” Scoop from the Star.
Speaking of the Mayor…
— SHOW US THE MONEY: “Chow is accusing the Toronto Port Authority of hiding initial plans for a $5-billion Billy Bishop airport expansion from the city, even though the authority says it has shared “preliminary” work with provincial and federal officials.” The Star’s also got that one.
— TENTS ON TRIAL: “The Region of Waterloo and the Ontario government will appeal a court decision that ruled in May the region is not allowed to remove people living at the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in downtown Kitchener because it violated resident’s charter rights.” CBC has the story.
— STRETCH GOAL? “New housing in Ontario stuttered slightly last month after a relatively strong start to the year, with the province still far away from its one-time goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.” More from Global News.
— SHOOTERS-FOR-HIRE: “Police say dozens of shootings across the GTA are being carried out in “gun-for-hire” schemes where young people are paid by “bad actors” to shoot at various targets, including synagogues, Jewish schools, and the U.S. Consulate.”
Liberal MPP STEPHANIE SMYTH (St. Paul’s) released a statement calling the revelations “unprecedented and terrifying” and blamed all three levels of government. “The reality is that nothing Mayor CHOW, Premier FORD, or Prime Minister CARNEY have done so far has been enough to stop this escalating campaign of hatred and violence.” More from CTV News.
— CHARGED UP: “Environmental groups are cheering an Ontario government announcement that three battery storage projects will add enough capacity to the electricity system to power 640,000 homes.” The Canadian Press has the story.
— HEALTH atHOME LATEST: “Senior staff in the Minister of Health’s office were notified about a cyber attack at a government home care agency more than a month before the public was told, despite publicly scolding the organization for not moving faster.” Global reports.
— RED LIGHT DISTRICT: “A new digital parking system in Elora has been abruptly taken offline after a bizarre cyber glitch began routing drivers to a pornography website instead of a payment portal.” Via CTV.
— A DIFFERENT KIND OF BUZZ: CBC is the latest to cover the Legislature’s rooftop bees, which I first told you about here. Word on the street is Speaker DONNA SKELLY is taking suggestions on what to name the honey that would eventually be sold in the gift shop. House Honey? Queen’s Bees? Fili-bee-ster? Comb-ittee Business? Puns intended and relished.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
Tourism Minister STAN CHO has poached an MPP liaison and board appointments adviser from Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND: LEILA VAFA, who was previously Holland’s policy and stakeholder relations adviser.
ASYA PRYCE is moving on from Cabinet Office and headed to the Ministry of Natural Resources as a senior comms adviser.
BRIAN HAO is exiting government after policy-and-stakeholder stints in the offices of the Ministers of Infrastructure and Long-Term Care. Hao has signed on to Impact Public Affairs as manager of public affairs.
It’s LinkedIn official: PATRICK SCHERTZER, who I first told you was leaving his post as chief of staff to Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY, has returned to his roots at Legal Aid Ontario as chief risk officer.
LOBBY LIST
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Abinaya Chandrabalan, Rubicon Strategy: Canada Workday ULC
Jessica Georgakopoulos, Sussex Strategy Group: Campfire Circle
Trisha Rinneard, Wellington Advocacy: Toronto Swim Club, United Association Local 787 - HVACR Workers of Ontario
Matthew Gagne, Vantage Canada LP: Ronsco Inc.
Tony Valeri, Ridge Strategy Group: Legnano Teknoelectric Company North America Inc.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former Premier ERNIE EVES.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Pulled pork mac and cheese with coleslaw.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 49 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Scarborough Southwest…132 days until the House reconvenes…157 days until the Liberals name a new leader…168 days to call a byelection in York-Simcoe.
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Cover: Bonnie Crombie attends the federal Liberal convention in Montreal. Via X.